000 AXNT20 KNHC 211008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 608 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in association with a low pressure system located near 09N39W. The low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours while it moves westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 11N between 37W and 41W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W from 02N-19N, moving west at 15 kt. Low pressure has developed in association to this wave, and is discussed in the special features section above. The tropical wave has started to move faster than the low, and has moved west of the surface low. The wave will continue to move further away from the surface low over the next few days. With high pressure strengthening over the subtropics, the steering flow will increase, and help the wave to increase its westward motion to around 20 to 25 kt within the next 24 to 48 hours. The axis of a tropical wave is near 54W from 17N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is along and within 120 nm of the wave axis from 08N to 10N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm E of the wave axis from 12N-16N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W south of 24N across Panama and into the eastern north Pacific, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 18N to 26N between 75W and 82W, including South Florida, Jamaica, Cuba and the NW Bahamas. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours as the northern portion of the wave moves west across the Gulf of Mexico. The southern portion of the wave is producing scattered moderate to strong convection in the far SW Caribbean from the N coast of Panama to 11N between 77W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19.5N17W to 09.5N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 08N52W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 08N56W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and low pressure described above, scattered showers are noted near both boundaries. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is near the coast of Africa from 07N-18N east of 20W. This is ahead of the next tropical wave which is moving off the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO A surface trough is moving inland over Texas from the NW Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong showers are north of 27.5N between 91W and 95W, including over the coast between south- central Louisiana and Galveston Bay. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the SW Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with a tropical wave that is just east of the area. This wave is forecast to move west through the eastern Gulf today, central Gulf Wed, then the W Gulf late in the week. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, increasing winds and seas are expected in association with this system. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see above for more on an active tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean. The tropical wave is helping produce active weather south of Cuba. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the south central Caribbean. Elsewhere, fresh winds prevail over the north central Caribbean, moderate winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean, and light to gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will persist across the region for the next several days. Expect increasing winds and seas over the NE Caribbean toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tropical wave moving across South Florida and the Florida Straits is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 26N, between 76W and the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the area from 20N-25N between 65W and the Florida Straits. Strong E winds cover the area from the N coast of Hispaniola to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Fresh winds will prevail over the waters S of 25N today as the tropical wave moves west of the region. A ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. In the NE Atlantic, strong NE winds prevail from 22N-29N, east of 27W, with locally near gale winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. $$ AL