000 AXNT20 KNHC 202254 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 654 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W from 02N-19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Low pressure associated with this wave is along the monsoon trough at 08N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 34W and 41W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W from from 02N-17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 43W and 47W. The axis of a tropical wave is crossing the Lesser Antilles along 62W from Venezuela to 22N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are located along the wave axis S of 14N. The axis of a tropical wave is along 80W from Panama to the Florida Straits, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 25N between 72W and 82W, especially in and near Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti. This wave has a low potential of tropical cyclone formation over the next couple of days when it's northern portion enters the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to 12N25W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N46W to 08N56W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either side of both boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO Weak low pressure of 1012 mb has formed in the NW Gulf near 28N94W, with a surface trough extending southward from it to near 23N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within about 120 nm of this low. There is a low chance of tropical development with this system before it moves inland over Texas tonight or Tue. Although there is some gusty winds associated with the thunderstorms, overall gentle to moderate winds prevail across all of the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the far SE Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits are associated with the tropical wave described above. This wave is forecast to move west-northwest through the eastern Gulf Tue, central Gulf Wed, then the NW Gulf Thu. There is a low risk of tropical cyclone formation with this feature through late Wed. Regardless of development, increasing winds and seas are possible by midweek in association with this system. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the section above for information on the tropical wave in the entering the western Caribbean and for the tropical wave crossing the Windward and Leeward Islands this evening. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure over Colombia will keep fresh to strong winds in place in the south central Caribbean into the weekend, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. Expect increasing winds and seas E of 65W Tue night through Fri night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave producing showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Bahamas this evening. High pressure 1022 mb centered just east of Bermuda near 32N62W extends southward, causing moderate to fresh east winds from the Greater Antilles to about 25N. To the east, a surface trough extends from 32N54W to 22N60W, and other from 32N42N to 25N52W. Both of these troughs are weakening, and shower activity previously associated with them has diminished. A ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Expect freshening winds over the waters S of 25N through Tue as the northern extend of a tropical wave moves westward across the region. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. $$ KONARIK