000 AXNT20 KNHC 200442 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1240 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 33W from 02N-19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 12N within the monsoon trough. The axis of a tropical wave is along 41/42W from 02N-17N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave mainly south of 11N, within the monsoon trough. The axis of a tropical wave is along 57W from 03N-21N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis from 08N-13N. The axis of a tropical wave is along 74/75W from 06N-24N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 17N-24N between 72W-77W, including Haiti, eastern Cuba and the southeast Bahamas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 13N22W to 08N40W. The ITCZ continues from 07N44W to 08N55W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate showers are noted with the monsoon trough from 08N-12N between 15W-40W, and along the ITCZ between 46W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO A surface trough is analyzed in the central Gulf from 27N92W to 20N91W. The surface trough and upper-level divergence over the north-central Gulf are contributing to scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms north of 24N between 87W-91W, and from 27N-29N between 91W-93W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are also seen east of 87W from 22N-26N, including the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is over the far eastern Bay of Campeche. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds extending from the coast of Louisiana southward for 120 nm. The northern extent of the tropical wave that is currently along 74/75W, will move into the SE Gulf on Tue, then move westward across the central and W Gulf through Thu night. Increasing winds and seas are possible by midweek in association with this system. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the section above for information on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. An upper-level trough axis extends over the Bahamas westward through the Florida Straits. Upper-level diffluence to the south of the upper-level trough axis is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the NW Caribbean Sea, north of 17N between 77W-85W, including over portions of Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica. GOES-16 water vapor channels show drier low to mid-level air over the southern Caribbean from 11N-16N. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across the central Caribbean between 68W-77W, locally strong off the coast of NW Venezuela. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will persist across the region for the next several days. Expect increasing winds and seas E of 65W Tue night through Fri night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper-level trough extends over the SW N Atlantic, Bahamas and Florida Straits. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 29N69W to 23N73W. The northern end of a tropical wave is also moving through the region, extending northward from the Windward Passage to near 24N74W. As a result of the aforementioned features, scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are present over the Florida Straits, Old Bahama Channel and across the Bahamas. Isolated showers are farther NE near the surface trough. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades for the waters within 210 nm north of the Greater Antilles between 65W-80W, including most of the Bahamas. Locally strong east winds are along the north coast of Hispaniola extending out 90 nm. Farther east, there are three surface troughs containing isolated showers. These troughs extend from 32N49W to 27N58W, from 30N44W to 24N46W, and from 22N55W to 16N55W, respectively. A 1021 mb surface high is centered east of Bermuda. The surface ridge axis extends generally east-west along 31/32N. As a result, light to gentle winds are found in the 26N-33N latitude band between 35W-80W. A high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Expect fresh winds to continue over the waters S of 25N through early this week as the northern extent of a tropical wave, currently along 74W, moves westward. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W Tue night through Fri night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. $$ Hagen