000 AXNT20 KNHC 191724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 124 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, from 20N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 27W and 31W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 39W, from 17N southward, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 37W and 41W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W from 20N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are from 07N to 12N between 53W and 57W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 20 kt. Showers are noted across western Hispaniola. The axis of a tropical wave is over the SW Gulf of Mexico extending southward into the eastern North Pacific, moving west at 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 19N27W to 07N43W. The ITCZ continues from 07N43W to 08N56W, then resumes from 08N57W to the coast of Venezuela near 08N69W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 08N-13N between 12W-32W. Scattered showers are within 70 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO At 1500 UTC, a trough is analyzed in the west-central Gulf from 29N91W to 23N90W. Scattered moderate convection is seen across much of the Gulf, N of 22N between 82W-95W. Light to gentle easterly winds are noted across the basin. Seas range 2-5 ft. A weak surface trough will move westward across the northern Gulf through early Mon. A trough associated with a tropical wave will move into the SE Gulf late Tue, then move west-northwestward across the central and NW Gulf through Thu. Increasing winds and seas are possible by midweek in association with this feature. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Greater Antilles in addition to the Yucatan Channel and along the Yucatan coast. Scattered moderate convection is also observed in the SW Caribbean along the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Otherwise, showers are seen in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas range 2-6 ft with 9 ft north of Colombia. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will persist across the region for the next several days. Winds and seas will increase E of the Lesser Antilles Tue night through Thu night as a high pressure ridge strengthens north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along the Bahamas from 29N76W to 24N76W. Another surface trough is noted north of Hispaniola from 26N69W to 21N69W. This trough has fresh winds to the west of it. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across both of these troughs from 21N-28N between 67W-79W. Another trough extends from a 1019 mb low near 31N58W to 27N56W with showers near the trough. Two more troughs are analyzed in the central Atlantic, one from 22N51W to 17N54W and the other from 31N42W to 24N44W with showers near both of these features. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft. A high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Expect freshening winds over the waters S of 25N through early this week as a low pressure trough moves westward across the region. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W Tue night through Thu night as a high pressure ridge strengthens north of the area. $$ AReinhart