000 AXNT20 KNHC 191004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 28/29W, from 20N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 24W and 31W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W, from 15N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 35W and 40W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 17N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated showers are from 07N to 11N between 52W and 56W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 20 kt. Showers are noted south of Hispaniola within 60 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is over the SW Gulf of Mexico extending southward into the eastern North Pacific, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the eastern Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 11N23W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to 08N52W, then resumes from 09N56W to 09N61W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N east of 40W to the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are over the eastern Gulf. The northern extent of a tropical wave is moving across the SW Gulf of Mexico. The wave is producing scattered moderate convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through early next week. A surface trough will cross the Gulf Tue through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail over the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the north- central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the basin. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the region for the next several days. Winds and seas will increase E of the Lesser Antilles Tue night through Thu night as high pressure strengthens north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough is analyzed from 29N74W to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 21N- 27N west of 65W across the Bahamas to the Florida Straits. A 1020 mb surface high is centered near Bermuda. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 32N48N to 27N56W. Scattered moderate showers prevail within 30 NM E of the trough. Another surface trough is from 31N40W to 24N43W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail west of 60W, and south of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. A high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next couple of nights. Expect freshening winds over the waters S of 24N through early next week as a low pressure trough moves westward across the region. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W Tue night through Thu night as high pressure strengthens north of the area. $$ AL