000 AXNT20 KNHC 190446 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1245 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W, from 20N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11.5N between 21W and 29W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W, from 15N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 34W and 40W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 17N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis from 05N-12N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 20 kt. Showers are noted near the landmasses of Hispaniola and South America, but not over the open waters of the Caribbean. The axis of a tropical wave extends from 22N90W to 06N93W, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Dakar Senegal to 12N21W to 10N27W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to 08N51W, then resumes from 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 30W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough continues to meander across the central Gulf from 29N87W to 23N89W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are over the eastern Gulf east of 89W. The northern end of a tropical wave is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate E winds over much of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough will move westward across the northern Gulf through Mon. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through early next week. Another trough will cross the Gulf Tue through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are noted in the NW and north-central Caribbean, N of 17N between 71W-86W. Isolated moderate convection is in the far SW Caribbean near the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Fresh trades are in the south-central Caribbean, south of 15N between 68W-79W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across the basin, gentle to moderate trades are noted. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the region for the next several days. Winds and seas will increase E of the Lesser Antilles Tue night through Thu night as high pressure strengthens north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper-level area of low pressure covers the area to the east and northeast of the Bahamas. A weak surface trough is analyzed along 73.5W from 24N-28N. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 21N-27N between 65W-83W, including the Florida Straits and NW Bahamas. Additional showers are noted near the northernmost Leeward Islands. A 1022 mb surface high is centered near Bermuda. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 32N48N to 27N56W. Another surface trough is from 31N39W to 25N42W, and a third trough is from 22N49W to 18N51W. Light showers are possible near all three troughs. A high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next couple of nights. Expect freshening winds over the waters S of 24N today through early this week as a low pressure trough moves westward across the region. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W Tue night through Thu night as high pressure strengthens north of the area. $$ Hagen