000 AXNT20 KNHC 181005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 605 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 21W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N within 60 nm west of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N within 60 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N within 60 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 18N to 21N between 63W and 65W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W from the SE Gulf of Mexico southward across the Caribbean Sea, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Channel. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 13N16.5W to 08N39W. The ITCZ continues from 08N39W to 07N47W. It resumes from 08N50W to 10N60W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm north and 300 nm south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 39W and 47W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 50W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Florida panhandle southwestward to near 25N87W. The northern extent of a tropical wave is moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico. These two features are supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the SE Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Straits, and southern Florida. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the SE Gulf, and west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. A surface trough will pass over the eastern Gulf today. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the north central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and climatological low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated to this feature is noted across the western Bahamas. Farther east, another surface trough extends from 29N66W to 20N68W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm east of the trough axis. Another surface trough is noted from 32N49W to 28N57W. Isolated showers are noted within 60 nm east of the trough axis. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the discussion area. A high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next couple of nights. $$ AL