000 AXNT20 KNHC 162353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W/30W from 02N-18N, moving westward at an estimated 24 hour speed of 15 kt. Less convective activity is currently being observed with this wave compared to 24 hours ago as it is beginning to move through a more stable surrounding atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 09N29W and within 30 nm of line from 06N27W to 07N31W. An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 02N-18N, moving westward at 10 kt. A trough lags behind this wave from 11N36W to 16N39W. Both of these features are surrounded by a stable atmospheric environment. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen from 07N to 09N between 36W-41W. A rather ill-defined central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W south of 19N. It is moving westward at an estimated 24 hour speed of 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms behind this wave are moving quickly westward from 09N to 12N between 54W-58W. Isolated showers also moving quickly westward are elsewhere south of 19N between 55W-61W. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 74W from 09N-21N, moving westward at the fast pace of 20 kt. Over water, isolated showers and small thunderstorms are west of the wave from 17N to 20N from between 75W to Jamaica. The northern part of this wave may be helping to enhance the afternoon thunderstorm activity over the southwest part of Haiti. Isolated weak showers moving quickly to the west are east of the wave axis to near 69W and from 15N to 17N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal, near 15N17W and continues to 09N30W to 08N33W and to 07N42W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N50W and to 09N58W. Aside from the convection described above associated to tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between east of 23W to the coast of Africa. Similar activity is from 08N to 11N east to inland the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low remains over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near 29N88W. Scattered to numerous moderate showers and thunderstorms continue over the north-central Gulf of Mexico north of 25N between 87W-93W, including portions of the Louisiana coast. A 1019 mb surface high is analyzed near 29N89W. Relatively weak high pressure covers the area. Broad gentle to moderate surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. As for the forecast, the high pressure will drift northward through Fri ahead of a surface trough moving across Florida into the southeast Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are expected across the region, except for locally fresh winds near the coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A small upper-level low is over the Mona Passage area. A trough extends from it south-southwestward to near 15N72W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over most parts of the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over the most of the interior sections of Haiti and over the south- central section of the Dominican Republic. Similar activity is moving westward over the waters just west of Jamaica and over the waters just east and and west of the Cayman Islands. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that developed from daytime heating over the interior of Cuba are moving west-southwestward, with some of this activity reaching the southern Cuban coastal waters. Subsidence and dry air continue over just about the entire basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined to the far SW Caribbean south of 12N and between the coast of northwestern Colombia and northern Panama. As for the forecast, high pressure north of the area and a forecast series of tropical waves moving through the basin will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere for the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak upper-level low is over the NW Bahamas, while at the surface a trough extends from near 30N78W south to over the NW Bahamas and to the coast of Cuba at 23N79W. These feature are are leading to an unstable atmosphere over this section of the Atlantic. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 27N and west of 73W reaching to Florida coast Straits of Florida. Farther east, an upper-level trough axis extends from near 32N61W to a small upper low over the Mona Passage area. A surface trough is analyzed from near 31N56W to 25N63W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are increasing within 60 nm of 27N63W, and within 30 nm of a line from 29N61W to 27N63W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, moving quickly westward, are noted elsewhere from 23N to 28N between the trough and 73W. A 1023 mb high center is near 31N46W. High pressure covers the remainder of the area. As for the forecast, the trough over the Bahamas will move west of the area through Fri, as a surface ridge builds north of the area. This pattern will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds off Hispaniola and near the entrances to the Windward Passage over the next couple of nights. $$ Aguirre