000 AXNT20 KNHC 160549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM Thu Jul 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between the 25W/26W tropical wave and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is 37W/38W from 16N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is part of the monsoon trough/ITCZ precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Any nearby precipitation is part of the monsoon ITCZ precipitation. Saharan dust was noted in the last few GOES-16 visible images to be present across this wave. This has been inhibiting any significant deep convective precipitation from developing near the wave for the time being. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 21N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: Strong subsidence, and resulting dry air in this part of the Caribbean Sea, are allowing for fast moving isolated rainshowers to exist, from 70W eastward. A tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from 18N southward, moving westward 15 knots. The wave is moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation is accompanying this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal, near 14N17W, to 10N20W, curving to 07N28W and 07N37W. The ITCZ continues from 07N37W, to 06N41W, 08N50W, and to 08N54W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between the 25W/26W tropical wave and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level inverted trough passes through the Yucatan Peninsula, curving toward the middle Texas Gulf coast. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds cover the area that is from 27N northward between 87W and 93W, the SE part of Louisiana and its coastal waters. Earlier scattered strong precipitation has been weakening with time. A surface ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure center, that is near 27N86W, to 27N94W, and then southwestward, to the coast of Mexico near 19N. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. The GFS model for 700 mb shows: a trough in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. One area of anticyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the area. A second and separate area of anticyclonic wind flow covers the SE corner of the area. An inverted trough extends from a part of the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the area. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico will drift northward through Friday. The high pressure will be in advance of a surface trough, that will be moving across Florida into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, are expected across the region, except for locally fresh winds near the coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 32N60W to 23N63W, to the Mona Passage, and into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Panama along 80W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters, is from 17N to 20N between 72W and 78W, in the coastal plains and the coastal waters from Haiti to Jamaica to SE Cuba. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds are from 80W westward. The clouds are from earlier widely scattered moderate to locally strong precipitation, that was in the coastal plains and coastal waters, that have been weakening and dissipating. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the SW Caribbean Sea, from 12N southward, from 75W westward. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to strong winds overnight in the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Honduras, and off Colombia. These winds will diminish through Thursday, as the high pressure center shifts more to the north. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 32N60W to 23N63W, to the Mona Passage, and into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Panama along 80W. A N-to-S oriented surface trough is along 72W/73W from 20N to 27N. An inverted surface trough extends from 28N76W to 32N79W. A third surface trough is in the central Atlantic Ocean, along 34N50W 28N56W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N northward from 50W westward. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 32N60W to 23N63W, to the Mona Passage, and into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Panama along 80W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters, is from 17N to 20N between 72W and 78W, in the coastal plains and the coastal waters from Haiti to Jamaica to SE Cuba. Two surface troughs, that are to the NE of the Bahamas, will dissipate overnight. A trough that is to the east of the area will weaken, as it moves into the northern Bahamas by Saturday. A ridge will build to the north of the area, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds, to the south of 22N into early next week. $$ mt