000 AXNT20 KNHC 151731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 23W from 02N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm ahead and 120 nm behind the wave axis from 05N-12N. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 36W from 02N- 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm ahead and 210 nm behind the wave axis from 04N-07N. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 51W from 03N- 20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are along and within 150 nm ahead of the wave axis from 05N-11N. A new tropical wave has been added to the analysis over the eastern Caribbean along 63W from 12N-22N. The tropical wave is moving W around 15 kt. Isolated showers prevail within 60 nm ahead and 150 nm behind the wave, mainly N of 15.5N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 13N17W to 09N20W to 09N36W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 08N49W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N53W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen along the coast of Africa from 08N-11N, east of 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid- to upper-level trough extends from the western Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana. This upper trough is enhancing scattered to numerous thunderstorms from 28N-31N between 85W-90W, including the nearshore waters between Tallahassee and SE Louisiana. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere, anchored by a 1018 mb high near 26N85W. Gentle wind speeds prevail across the eastern and central Gulf, with moderate speeds closer to Texas and in the SW Gulf. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through late Thu maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. The ridge will shift north by Fri, ahead of a trough that will move westward across Florida and into the southeast Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper-level inverted trough over Central America is supporting numerous moderate isolated strong convection over Nicaragua, and adjacent waters of the Caribbean within 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua. Saharan dust prevails across most of the remainder of the basin, keeping the atmosphere stable and limiting any shower activity. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, south of 14N between 73W- 78W. Prevalent Atlantic high pressure extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean waters will sustain fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin and portions of the SW Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A small surface trough extends from 30N76W to 28.5N77.5W. A more significant surface trough extends from 30N69W to 23N72W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms prevail across the area from 21N-31N between 69W and the east coast of Florida, including the Bahamas. Farther east, another surface trough is analyzed from 31N52W to 24N57W, with isolated showers near the trough axis. Yet another surface trough extends from 15N30W to 19N39W. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle wind speeds across most of the area, except for locally fresh in the Windward Passage. An ASCAT pass also shows strong N to NE winds east of 22W, north of the Canary Islands. A trough north of the Bahamas will shift west as high pressure rebuilds in the region. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds north of Hispaniola and near the Windward Passage through the weekend. $$ Hagen