238 AXNT20 KNHC 141730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along the W coast of Africa extends from 03N-20N along 16W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 270 nm either side of the wave axis from 06N-11N. A tropical wave axis in the E Atlantic extends along 31W from 04N-26N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis from 05N-10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 44W extends from 10N-26N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. There is no convection due to dry air surrounding the wave. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 20N with axis along 84W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave over the Gulf of Honduras. Similar convection is over the SW Caribbean where the wave intersects with the monsoon trough, including over portions of southern Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of W Africa near 12N17W to 09N24W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate showers are seen from 05N-10N between 41W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak deep-layered ridging covers most of the Gulf except for the NE portion of the basin, where troughing in the low to mid levels is enhancing scattered showers, mainly north of 26.5N and east of 90W. A 1017 mb surface high is near 24N84W. Light to gentle winds are over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT shows moderate wind speeds closer to the Texas coast and in the SW Gulf. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into mid week producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift north starting mid week, ahead of a trough that will move westward across Florida and into the southeast Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave over the western Caribbean and Central America. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection south of 12N between 76W-85W. Saharan dust covers much of the remainder of the basin, east of 82W and north of 12N. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh and strong winds from 10N-17.5N between 68W-82W. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area and lower pressure over northern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Wed night. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move out of the basin through tonight. Another tropical wave farther east in the central Atlantic will approach the eastern Caribbean by Thu night, and move across the central Caribbean during the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough extends from Freeport Bahamas to 32N78W. Isolated showers and tstorms are in the area east of Florida and over the NW and central Bahamas. The trough north of the Bahamas will persist through mid week, then shift west as high pressure builds north the region. Light to gentle winds cover the Florida Straits, NW and central Bamahas, and the area north of 24N and west of 72W. Slightly farther east, an area of upper-level diffluence and enhanced moisture is leading to scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 26N-32N between 66W-70W. A 1023 mb surface high is near 31N58W. A surface trough is analyzed from 24N51W to 16N56W with isolated light showers. $$ Hagen