000 AXNT20 KNHC 141104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is coming off the coast of W Africa. The wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 15W. The wave is being engulfed by the Saharan Air Layer. Scattered moderate convection is limited to the southern portion of the wave in the vicinity of the monsoon trough or from 04N to 18N between 10W and 24W. A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 05N to 20N with axis near 27W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-12N between 24W and 34W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to 22N with axis near 42W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 37W and 47W. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 82W, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are S of 18N W of 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of W Africa near 11N16W to 08N32W to 08N50W. The ITCZ extends from 08N50W to 07N59W. For information about convection, see the tropical waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... Both microwave imagery at the lower levels and water vapor imagery at the middle levels show very stable conditions in the gulf under the influence of an upper level ridge. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient across the region supports gentle to moderate reurn flow W of 90W and lighter variable winds elsewhere. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into mid week producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift north starting mid week, ahead of a trough that will move westward across Florida and into the southeast Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean. Except for the Gulf of Honduras and adjacent waters between Panama and Colombia where scattered showers and tstms are observed, the remainder basin is under the influence of a Saharan Air Layer event, which is likely limiting visibility E of 80W. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area and lower pressure over northern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Wed night. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move out of the basin through tonight. Another tropical wave farther east in the central Atlantic will approach the eastern Caribbean by Thu night, and move across the central Caribbean during the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layered trough aloft continue to support scattered showers and tstms N of 26N today. This convective activity is forecast to continue through Wed night. The remainder subtropical Atlc waters are under the influence of a surface ridge, which maintains fair weather conditions. Gentle to moderate return flow will continue across the region through this morning. Easterly gentle to moderate winds are expected Wed evening through the weekend. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through the entire forecast period. $$ Ramos