000 AXNT20 KNHC 131731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 04N to 24N with axis near 25W, moving west at 10-15 kt. A large area of enhanced moisture is seen on TPW imagery in association with this tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the wave axis from 07N-14N. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to 23N with axis near 37W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 05N-10N. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 75W, moving westward at 20 kt. A plume of enhanced moisture accompanies this tropical wave, as seen on TPW imagery. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen within 120 nm of the wave axis from 12N-18N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 09N29W to 08N45W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-12N between 15W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the southeastern Gulf. Mid- level troughing extends along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. southwestward to the NE Gulf. Mid-level troughing is also over the SW Gulf. A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High to the Florida Straits to the central Gulf. The western and central Gulf are free of any significant precipitation. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are found over portions of the eastern Gulf, and near the U.S. Gulf Coast from New Orleans Louisiana to Naples Florida. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into mid week producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift north starting mid week, ahead of a trough that will cross Florida and move into the southeast Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the Caribbean. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends over the NW Caribbbean, where light to gentle winds are seen north of 18.5N on the latest ASCAT pass. Relatively dry air due to Saharan dust covers most of the eastern Caribbean east of 72W. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered strong convection mainly south of 11N between 77W-84W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades across the central portion of the basin, with moderate trades elsewhere south of 18.5N. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the western basin by tonight and move out of the basin by early Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong mid- to upper-level trough located over the far eastern U.S. just inland from the Atlantic seaboard is inducing large scale rising motion ahead of it over the far western Atlantic. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture being drawn north- northeastward from the Florida Straits and Bahamas. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen from 23N-32N between 73W- 79W, with scattered lighter to moderate showers extending eastward from there to 65W. Fresh S winds are seen on the latest ASCAT pass north of 27N between 73W-78W. A 1023 mb high is near 29N59W. A broad surface ridge extends SW from the high, south of the weather described above, toward Cuba. Fresh southerly winds are expected to continue over the waters north of 27N between 70W and 80W through tonight due to the pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and lower pressure over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through the end of this week. $$ Hagen