000 AXNT20 KNHC 130533 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 133 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W, south of 22N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 02N to 17N, mainly related to the interaction of the wave with the monsoon trough. The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, south of 24N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 10N, mainly related to the interaction of the wave with the monsoon trough. The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W, south of 23N, moving Westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, south of 20N, moving Westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the wave axis affecting Belize, the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 06N41W. The ITCZ extends from 06N41W to 06N54W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection prevails along the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1014 mb high centered near 26N93W. A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N88W to 16N92W. To the east, a surface trough extends across central Florida into the eastern Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of the trough, affecting central and south Florida. Mainly light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin. In the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. High pressure over the western Atlantic is building across the basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail over the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue north of Jamaica into Cuba and the central Bahamas associated to the mid-level trough moving across Florida. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Mon through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Mon night through Wed night. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the western basin by Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough extends across the Florida peninsula. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted within 90 NM east of the trough. Scattered moderate convection prevails south and southeast of the trough, mainly north of 26N west of 71W. To the east, high pressure is centered near 30N58W, with ridge extending SW to the central Bahamas. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the high pressure center. East of the high pressure center, a cold front enters the discussion area from 32N39W to 26N44W. No significant convection is related to this front at this time. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters north of 27N between 70W and 80W through tonight due to the pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and a surface trough over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola at night through the entire period. $$ Torres