000 AXNT20 KNHC 122210 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 610 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2210 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W from 04N- 22N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated convection is noted south of 12N mainly related to the interaction of the wave with the monsoon trough. The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W from 04N-22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails south of 10N, mainly related to the interaction of the wave with the monsoon trough. The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W S of 23N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 18N between 64W-68W. The passage of this wave over Puerto Rico has caused significant rainfall over the island, with almost 3 inches reported over a few stations since last night across the northeastern portion. 1- 1.50 inches of rainfall were reported over most of the northern half of the island. The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W S of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 18N between 83W-88W affecting Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 05N52W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated convection prevails south of the monsoon trough to 05N and east of 38W to the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 25N92W. A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 21N92W to 18N94W. To the east, a surface trough extends across central Florida into the eastern Gulf. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of the trough, affecting central and south Florida. Mainly light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin. The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the south- central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the remainder of the Caribbean basin. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Mon night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A 1011 mb surface low is centered near 33N78W, with a surface trough extending SW to Central Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted within 90 NM east of the trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails south and southeast of the trough, mainly north of 25N west of 71W. To the east, high pressure is centered near 30N58W, with ridge extending SW to the central Bahamas. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the high pressure center. East of the high pressure center, a cold front enters the discussion area from 32N38W to 27N47W. No significant convection is related to this front at this time. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters north of 27N between 70W and 80W through tonight due to the pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and a surface trough over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola at night through the entire period. $$ AL