000 AXNT20 KNHC 121059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 04N to 23N with axis near 18W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 15N between the coast of Africa and 20W. A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 04N to 23N with axis near 28W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection and thunderstorms are noted from 07N to 12N between 20W and 31W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis near 67W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 15N to 24N between 59W and 68W. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 85W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are occurring in the NW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 12N30W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 04N52W to the coast of Brazil near 04N52W. For information about comvection, see the tropical waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging preavils across most of the basin along with moderate to fresh return flow west of 90W. A weak cold front extending from 29N83W to SE Louisiana will dissipate near the Tampa Bay area by this evening. Scattered showers and tstms will be associated with this wave. Otherwise, wave heights are generally 3 ft or less across the region. The pressure gradient between surface ridging extending SW from the Atlantic and lower pressure along Mexico will support moderate to fresh return flow west of 90W during the entire period. Winds will be enhanced at night along the Yucatan peninsula coast due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A tropical wave in the E Caribbean is generating scattered showers and tstms. This shower activity wil continue today. A second tropical wave is traversing Honduras, however it lacks significant convection. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are in the SW Caribbean associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough. The gradient between Atlantic high pressure extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean waters and lower pressure over northern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south-central and southwest basin through Thu. A tropical wave over the E Caribbean will move to the central waters Sun evening and across the western basin through Tue night. The wave will support scattered showers and will enhance the winds and seas. Otherwise, fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong Tue and Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered showers and tstms are occuring over the northern Bahamas and adjacent northern waters ahead of a frontal boundary that will support enhanced winds and sea through Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters north of 27N between 70W and 80W through Mon night due to the pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure along the southeast CONUS. Otherwise, fresh winds off the northern Hispaniola coast will pulse to strong at night through the entire period. $$ Ramos