000 AXNT20 KNHC 112222 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 622 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W from 03N- 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 25W and 30W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are noted along the wave axis mainly N of 15N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 78W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 15N20W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N and E of 25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N betwen 30W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the northwest Gulf near 28N93W, with its ridge axis extending to the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the northeastern Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Wave heights are generally 3 ft or less across the region. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days producing gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across the south- central Caribbean. Gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south- central Caribbean, 2-4 ft over the northwest Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean most of the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail. The passages of tropical waves will also enhance the trade wind flow. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A low to mid level trough extends over and just east of Florida. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the waters north of 23N and west of 72W. A deep- layer ridge prevails elsewhere across the waters N of 20N, with a surface ridge axis extending from 1021 mb high pressure near 31N54W to the central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge and low pressure troughing over the southeastern U.S. is supporting fresh to strong southerly winds N of 26N between 72W and 76W, where seas are building to near 8 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail, with peak seas around 7-8 ft. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters north of 27N and west of 70W through Mon, as the pressure gradient tightens between the Bermuda-Azores High and a surface trough extending from 31N76W to the NW Bahamas. Winds and seas will diminish early next week as the trough weakens and high pressure builds across the northern waters. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will persist around the southern periphery of the ridge. $$ AL