000 AXNT20 KNHC 111005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 605 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W/21W south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N within 120 nm of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 21N53W to 08N59W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The monsoon trough extends across Panama along 08N/09N. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted S of 11N between 76W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 10N32W to 10N38W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 06N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N E of 19W, and within 90 nm S of the monsoon trough W of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the central Gulf near 27N89W this morning, with its ridge axis extending to the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted in overnight scatterometer data across much of the Gulf. A surface trough offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing some locally fresh winds over the SW Gulf, where seas are running 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, wave heights are generally 3 ft or less across the region. High pressure over the central Gulf will shift westward and weaken this weekend as a low pressure trough develops over Florida. The trough will lift northeastward early next week, which will allow high pressure to rebuild across the eastern Gulf through midweek. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail across the region for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the waters S of 18N per overnight scatterometer data. Strong to near gale-force winds are noted near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with 8-11 ft seas associated with the strongest winds. Some fresh to locally strong winds are also occurring over the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly gentle winds are noted south of Cuba over the NW Caribbean. A tropical wave near 79W will cross the western Caribbean through late Sun. Strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will briefly diminish Sun into Mon, then strengthen again Mon night through midweek as another tropical wave crosses the region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will persist through this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep-layer ridge prevails across the waters N of 20N, with a surface ridge axis extending from 1024 mb high pressure near 33N58W to the central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge and low pressure troughing over the southeastern U.S. is supporting fresh southerly winds N of 26N between 72W and 78W. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore of the northern Bahamas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail south of the ridge across the central Atlantic, with peak seas around 7-8 ft. Southerly winds will strengthen over the waters north of 27N and west of 70W this weekend, as the pressure gradient tightens between a Bermuda high pressure ridge and a low pressure trough over Florida. Winds and seas will diminish early next week as the trough weakens and high pressure builds across the northern waters. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will persist south of the ridge for the next several days. $$ B Reinhart