000 AXNT20 KNHC 110614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 214 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Fay, at 11/0600 UTC, is near 41.5N 75.0W, or about 43 nm/80 km to the north of New York City. T.S. FAY is moving northward, or 05 degrees, 15 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of the line that runs from 40N70W to 38N72W to 36N72W to 33N75W to 32N74W to the Nw Bahamas. The following are hazards affecting land : RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeastern New York, and parts of New England. It is possible that this rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding, in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest rain amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. Rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22N16W 15N20W 07N20W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 09N to 12N between 20W and 26W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 11N from 20W eastward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21N52W 12N56W, to southern Guyana, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from 08N to 13N between 54W and 62W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond western Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An inverted trough, from 250 mb to 700 mb, extends from Panama, northeastward, beyond the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: widely scattered scattered moderate to strong, in clusters, is from 04N in Colombia to 12N along the coast of Nicaragua, from 72W at the border of Colombia and Venezuela, westward. A tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from 18N southward, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 700 mb inverted trough is in the area of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. A surface trough is about 75 nm to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula, between 90W and 93W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 22N southward between 90W and 93W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 18N16W, to 14N27W, to 09N33W, and 11N38W. The ITCZ is along 06N/07N between 37W and 56W at the coast of Suriname. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 09N to 12N between 20W and 26W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 11N from 20W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from the coast to 08N between 51W and 58W near South America. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 01N to 14N from 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the east central Gulf of Mexico. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, near the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface ridge extends from Cuba to a 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 27N91W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico will shift westward this weekend, as a trough develops in Florida. The trough will move northeastward early next week. High pressure will build again, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico through midweek. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail across the region for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave near 78W will cross the western Caribbean Sea through late Sunday. Strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will pulse to near gale-force speeds tonight, near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, behind the 78W tropical wave. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish briefly from Sunday through Monday, and then increase from Tuesday into Wednesday, as another tropical wave crosses the region. Moderate to fresh trade winds will persist across much of the area through this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper level inverted trough, that extends from Panama, northeastward, beyond the eastern sections of Dominican Republic, continues northeastward in the Atlantic Ocean, to 32N62W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 210 nm on either side of the upper level inverted trough. Southerly winds will strengthen in the waters that are to the N of 27N and to the W of 70W during this weekend. The surface pressure gradient will tighten, between a Bermuda ridge and a trough in Florida. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish early next week, as the trough weakens and high pressure builds across the northern waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail to the south of the ridge, with locally strong winds pulsing to the north of Hispaniola each evening through Sunday night. $$ mt