000 AXNT20 KNHC 102216 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 616 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 39.5N 74.3W at 10/2100 UTC or 10 nm NNE of Atlantic City New Jersey moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward across portions of the mid- Atlantic and northeast coast tonight. Please read the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 11N E of 20W to the coast of Africa. The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted from 09N to 11N between 53W and 58W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and west of the wave axis mainly south of 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 13N35W to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N42W to 08N54W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 30W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure center is analyzed across the north- central Gulf near 27N91W. Light to gentle winds prevail near the high, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow elsewhere across the basin. High pressure over the central Gulf will shift westward this weekend as a low pressure trough develops over Florida. The trough will lift northeastward early next week, which will allow high pressure to rebuild across the eastern and central Gulf. Expect gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to prevail across much of the region for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. The pressure gradient associated with a surface high pressure ridge over the central and western Atlantic, and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will pulse to near gale- force speeds tonight near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds and seas will briefly diminish Sun through Mon, then begin to increase on Tue as a tropical wave crosses the region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will persist across much of the area through this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough extends from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas. The trough is helping for scattered showers and thunderstorms over much the Atlantic waters west of 70W. Fresh to strong winds prevail east of the trough to 70W. Light to gentle winds prevail west of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere west of 65W. A surface ridge axis prevails east of the surface trough. Light to gentle winds are found north of the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds south of the ridge axis to 20N. South of 20N, fresh tradewinds prevail. Southerly winds will strengthen over the waters north of 27N and west of 70W this weekend, as the pressure gradient tightens between a Bermuda high pressure ridge extending to the central Bahamas and a low pressure trough over Florida. Winds and seas will diminish early next week as the trough weakens and high pressure builds across the northern waters. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue south of the ridge, with locally strong winds pulsing north of Hispaniola each evening. $$ AL