000 AXNT20 KNHC 101011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 611 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 37.4N 74.8W at 10/0900 UTC, or 60 nm SSE of Ocean City Maryland, moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. The center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move inland over the mid- Atlantic or the northeast United States late tonight or on Sat. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends from 20N45W to 04N51W, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 18N within 60 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N20W to 10N33W. The ITCZ extends from 10N33W to 10N46W, then resumes from 08N51W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough E of 24W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 nm S of the ITCZ between 39W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure center is analyzed across the east-central Gulf near 26N87W this morning. Overnight scatterometer data shows light and variable winds near the high, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow elsewhere over the basin. Some locally fresh winds are noted with a surface trough over the SW Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas in this region are likely 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, an earlier altimeter pass across the central Gulf indicated 1-3 ft seas over these waters. High pressure over the central Gulf will shift westward this weekend as a low pressure trough develops over Florida. The trough will lift NE early next week, which will allow high pressure to rebuild across the eastern and central Gulf. Expect gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to prevail across much of the region for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient associated with a dominant surface high pressure ridge over the central and western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean this morning. Overnight scatterometer data shows small areas of near gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, as a tropical wave is currently moving across the area. Wave heights are 8-12 ft within these enhanced trades over the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate trades prevail across the remaining waters. Some scattered thunderstorms are noted near the Gulf of Honduras in association with another tropical wave. A tropical wave near 73W will move across the central and western Caribbean through Sun. Behind this wave, strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will pulse to near gale-force speeds tonight near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds and seas will briefly diminish Sun and Mon, then increase again by midweek as another tropical wave crosses the region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will persist across much of the area through this weekend. The tropical wave over the Gulf of Honduras will continue moving across Central America through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low to mid-level trough off the southeastern U.S. coast is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore of northern Florida, and near the central and southern Bahamas. Otherwise, deep-layer ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. Overnight scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh southerly flow across the offshore waters N of 24N between 70W and 75W. Light to gentle winds persist near the surface ridge axis that extends from near 31N55W to the central Bahamas. South of this ridge, moderate to fresh trade winds continue across the central Atlantic. Stronger winds are occurring within the enhanced pressure gradient near the west African coast. Southerly winds will strengthen over the waters N of 27N and W of 70W this weekend, as the pressure gradient tightens between a Bermuda high pressure ridge extending to the central Bahamas and a low pressure trough over Florida. Winds and seas will diminish early next week as the trough weakens and high pressure builds across the northern waters. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of the ridge, with locally strong winds pulsing north of Hispaniola each evening. $$ B Reinhart