000 AXNT20 KNHC 100550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 36.7N 74.9W at 10/0600 UTC or 90 nm S of Ocean City Maryland moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The following are hazards: RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain, with isolated maxima of 8 inches along and near the track of Fay, across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast, first within the warning area on Friday, and spread northward through the warning area Friday night. STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for parts of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Friday in parts of New Jersey, southeastern New York, and southern New England. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20N44W 11N48W 02N51W, at the coast of NE Brazil, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from 10N to 16N between 42W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from 20N in the NW part of the Dominican Republic, southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is just off the coast of SW Haiti. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 78W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W, and to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues from 10N32W to 10N46W, and from 09N50W, to 07N56W, to 10N60W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to numerous strong is within 150 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 36W and 40W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm to 90 nm of the coast of Africa from 06N to 07N, and from 10N to 12N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is inland, from the coast southward between 55W and 64W, in parts of Brazil, Suriname, Guyana, and Venezuela. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level inverted trough extends from the western part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, northward to 23N in Mexico, and then northeastward into the east central part of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong from 15N in the eastern Pacific Ocean to 19N between 93W and 96W. A surface trough is within 30 nm to 60 nm off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, between 90W and 93W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 75 nm on either side of the surface trough. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is on top of south Florida. A separate upper level anticyclonic circulation center also is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, with these two features. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 27N88W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico will shift westward during the upcoming weekend, as a trough develops in the SE U.S.A. The trough will move NE early next week. High pressure will rebuild in the eastern and central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, to prevail through the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model shows that an upper level inverted trough extends from Barranquilla in Colombia about 400 nm to the WNW into the Caribbean Sea. A second upper level inverted trough, in the GFS model forecast for 250 mb, extends from 25N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N southward between 60W and 68W. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the area. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 74W in Colombia, and beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N southward from 76W westward. Fresh trade winds will persist across much of the Caribbean Sea through Saturday. Strong winds will be in the south central Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds are expected to pulse to near gale- force speeds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. The winds and the seas in the south central Caribbean Sea will diminish briefly on Sunday and Monday, and then increase again by midweek in the wake of a tropical wave that will be crossing the region. A current 85W tropical wave, that is being accompanied by scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms, will continue moving across Central America through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The northeasternmost point of a surface trough is about 300 nm to the WSW of T.S. FAY. The surface trough passes through the waters that are between the NW Bahamas and south Florida, to 24N80W in the Straits of Florida. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is between the trough and Florida from 26N to 30N. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N northward from 72W westward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N southward from 69W westward, with the Florida upper level anticyclonic circulation center. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, and weakening/dissipating precipitation, with some remaining rainshowers and thunderstorms, are elsewhere from 20N northward from 64W westward. Southerly winds will strengthen in the waters that are to the N of 27N and W of 70W this weekend. The surface pressure gradient will tighten, between a Bermuda ridge that will be extending to the central Bahamas, and a trough that will be in the SE U.S.A. The winds and the seas will diminish early next week, as the trough weakens and high pressure builds across the northern waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of the ridge, with locally strong winds pulsing north of Hispaniola each evening. $$ mt