000 AXNT20 KNHC 092346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 746 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 36.0N 74.8W at 10/0000 UTC or 70 mi NE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving N at 7 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland on Saturday. Fay is expected to produce heavy rainfall across the mid-Atlantic United States into SE New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. The next update will occur by 8 PM EDT this evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tilted tropical wave is from 19N43W to 02N49W just NE of the coast of Brazil, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is surrounded by dry Saharan air and dust, however scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is still noted from 09N-14N between 42W and 49W, with scattered moderate convection noted from 07N-09N between 48W-56W, and from 08N-11N between 57W-59W. A tropical wave is along 70W/71W from the S central Dominican Republic to near the A-B-C Islands and across western Venezuela and eastern Colombia moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection over waters is noted with this wave, with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted over eastern Colombia. A tropical wave is along 84W in the western Caribbean from near the Cayman Islands to near the border of Nicaragua/Honduras to near the border of Costa Rica/Panama continuing into the far E tropical Pacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N-19N between 80W-87W. A tropical wave is along 96W exiting the western Bay of Campeche moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with the departing wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 13N17W to 10N29W. The ITCZ extends from 10N29W to 10N45W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N49W to the coast of French Guiana near 06N53W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-10N between 32W-40W, GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 27N88W. A weak surface trough is analyzed along the western coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, with an upper level ridge residing above the Gulf. Gentle winds are noted in the central Gulf near the high, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the basin. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less E of 90W, and 4-6 ft W of 90W. Seas are 7-10 ft in the S central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere except 3 ft or less in the NW caribbean. High pressure over the central Gulf will shift westward through Sun as a trough develops over Florida. The trough will lift to the NE through the early part of next week. This pattern will maintain generally moderate winds and slight seas through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See the tropical waves section above for more details. Otherwise, high pressure ridging is just N-NE of the basin. Fresh to strong trades are noted in the S-central Caribbean including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere, except gentle S of 11N and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 7-10 ft where the strongest winds are, and 4-7 ft elsewhere except 3 ft or less near the Gulf of Honduras. The gradient between high pressure centered N of the area and lower pressure toward the equator will continue to produce fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through the weekend, with strong to even near gale conditions north of Colombia and Venezuela. Winds and seas over the south central Caribbean will diminish slightly Sun and Mon as another strong tropical wave moves through the region, but will increase again by mid week in the wake of the tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more details about Tropical Storm Fay. A weak low-level trough extending from near Tropical Storm Fay is inducing several bands of moderate to strong convection N of the Bahamas and E-SE of the trough. Moderate to fresh SE-S flow are W of 65W, except light to gentle W of the Bahamas and just E of Florida. Seas are 4-7 Ft W of 65W, except 3 ft or less W of the Bahamas. Farther E, an upper level trough is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N-30N between 66W- 74W. Another low-level trough that was extending SW to around 31N52W to 28N62W and producing scattered moderate convection has dissipated. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N36W. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted N of 25N and E of 65W, with moderate to locally fresh trades S of 25N and E of 65W. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft E of 65W, locally to 8 ft. Winds will increase N of the Bahamas Sat and Sun as a trough approaches from the Gulf coast states into Florida, but will diminish into mid week as the trough weakens and lifts to the NE. Fresh trade winds will persist S of the ridge, mainly S of 22N. $$ Lewitsky