000 AXNT20 KNHC 090955 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 555 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Surface observations, satellite data, and radar data indicate that an area of low pressure, that is about 50 miles to the east of Wilmington in North Carolina, gradually is becoming better defined. The associated rainshowers and thunderstorms still are disorganized. They are mostly confined to the east of the center. The low pressure center is expected to move northeastward or north- northeastward, near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks later today, and then along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development. It is likely that a tropical cyclone or subtropical cyclone may form later today or tonight. The system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that may cause some flash flooding in parts of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds also are possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks today, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday. Please monitor the progress of this system, and refer to bulletins, and watches and warnings from your local National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high. Please read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 01N to 18N,moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is surrounded by dry Saharan air and dust, but a few showers and thunderstorms are occurring along its axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from Puerto Rico to Venezuela, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated convection is associated with this wave, mainly through the Mona Passage. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 20N to Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered mostly moderate convection is located along this wave south of 17N across the SW Caribbean Sea and adjacent parts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. A tropical wave is along 92W in the Bay of Campeche, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated moderate convection is occurring in the Bay of Campeche in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N32W to 06N43W, where it reaches a tropical wave. Ahead of the tropical wave, the ITCZ resides from 06N48W to the coast of Guyana at 06N56W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located from 05N to 10N between 12W and 25W and from 04N to 08N between 31W and 37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also located within 150 nm of either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 26N87W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, with an upper level ridge residing above the Gulf. High pressure will dominate Gulf weather into early next week. A low pressure trough extending into the far eastern parts of the Gulf will move north and east of the area by Friday. Moderate to fresh return southerly flow to the east of the high pressure center will impact the western Gulf into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical waves reside along 69W and 81W. The western wave is interacting with the monsoon trough in the far SW Caribbean to induce showers and thunderstorms that are affecting portions of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica as well as adjacent waters. Otherwise, generally dry air prevails over the basin. The gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and lower pressure toward the equator will continue to produce fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through the weekend, with strong to even near gale conditions north of Colombia and Venezuela. A strong tropical wave approaching 80W early this morning will move into central America tonight, accompanied by showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Another strong tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles Sat and move across the eastern Caribbean Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for details on the low pressure off the coast of North Carolina. A weak low-level trough extending from this low is inducing several bands of moderate to strong convection north of the Bahamas and just east of the Florida Peninsula. Farther east, and upper level trough is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms N of 25N between 60W and 70W. Still another low-level trough extending SW to around 30N47W is producing scattered moderate showers and a few thunderstorms. Southerly winds ahead of a surface trough along the SE U.S. coast will be fresh to strong N and E of the Bahamas into early next week. This trough will bring showers and thunderstorms to nearby waters. High pressure centered north and east of the area will dominate most of the rest of the waters. $$ KONARIK