000 AXNT20 KNHC 081801 TWDAT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 081700 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure centered inland over coastal South Carolina, continues to produce a large area of disorganized rainshowers across parts of the southeastern United States, with widespread showers and thunderstorms extending east and northeastward for a few hundred miles over the adjacent offshore waters. The low pressure center is expected to move east- northeastward toward the coast later today then turn northeastward near or just offshore of the Carolinas and the mid- Atlantic states on Thursday and Friday. A tropical or subtropical cyclone may form during this time if the low pressure center moves over water. The low center is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that may cause flash flooding in parts of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is medium. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 19N southward, moving westward 10-15 knots. Saharan air and an associated low level wind surge have moved well ahead of this wave, and can be seen from 10N to 22N, across the Atlantic Ocean to the Lesser Antilles. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W S of 21N, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is north of Puerto Rico from 19N-22N between 65W-69W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W from 19N southward, mostly across Central America, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 13N26W. The ITCZ continues from 13N26W to 08N36W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N40W and continues to N Brazil near 04N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are within 180 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N87W. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over the central Florida near Orlando. Scattered shower are over S Florida and the Straits of Florida. Similar showers are south of the Florida Panhandle. Anticyclonic wind flow continues across the basin, with fresh SE to S winds generally W of 93W, where seas are 3-5 ft. Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Gulf through the weekend with the high center fluctuating between the NW and NE basin. This will allow for the continuation of moderate to fresh return flow west of 90W and moderate westerly winds across NE portions of the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast for the NE portions of the basin Fri and Sat as the tail end of a frontal system moves across the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... Three tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Strong trade winds are south of 13N offshore of Colombia where seas are 7-8 ft. Fresh to locally strong ESE winds are moving into the NE Caribbean behind a tropical wave. Atlantic high pressure extending to the northern Caribbean waters will allow the continuation of fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean increasing to near gale force Fri and Sat nights. Freshening winds, building seas and active weather accompanying a strong tropical wave along 77W will shift W across the basin through Fri. Strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through the weekend. Another strong tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic waters Sat and move across the E Caribbean Sat night and Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is over the far W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 68W. The tail end of a prefrontal trough is also over the W Atlantic from 31N53W to 28N63W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. A 1028 mb high is over the Azores near 40N25W. Over the western Atlantic, surface ridging will strengthen across the region later today through Sat. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will affect most of the area N of 23N Wed through Sat night. Low pressure across the SE U.S. will move NE and approach the coast of the Carolinas tonight through Thu, dragging a trough across the northern Florida offshore waters. A strong tropical wave will reach the SE waters Sun. $$ FORMOSA