000 AXNT20 KNHC 081110 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 710 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure centered inland over coastal South Carolina, continues to produce a large area of disorganized rainshowers across parts of the southeastern United States, with widespread showers and thunderstorms extending east and northeastward for a few hundred miles over the adjacent offshore waters. The low pressure center is expected to move east- northeastward toward the coast later today then turn northeastward near or just offshore of the Carolinas and the mid- Atlantic states on Thursday and Friday. A tropical or subtropical cyclone may form during this time if the low pressure center moves over water. The low center is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that may cause flash flooding in parts of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is medium. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 19N southward, moving westward 10-15 knots. Saharan air and an associated low level wind surge have moved well ahead of this wave, and can be seen from 10N to 22N, across the Atlantic Ocean to the Lesser Antilles. The monsoon trough is lifting northward behind this wave, with widely scattered moderate convection noted from 10N to 15N from just offshore of the Cabo Verde Islands to 33W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave from 03N to 09N between 35W and 43W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 20N66W to 14N67W to 05N69W, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is moving WNW across Puerto Rico, the southern Mona Passage and waters offshore of Hispaniola from 15N to 18N between 67W and 71W. This convection is moving into the rear flanks of Saharan air ahead of this wave, which is providing favorable conditions for squalls and strong wind gusts. An energetic northern portion of this wave raced quickly across Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters and is moving to the NE of the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is occurring across interior Colombia, with scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave from 11.5N southward across Panama between 76W and 80W. Conditions remain favorable for strong convection across this region ahead of the wave today. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 18N southward across Central America, moving west 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is behind the wave from 12.5N south and southwestward to coastal sections of Central America. Condition remain favorable for strong convection to occur with and behind this wave today. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 13N24W. The ITCZ continues from 13N24W, to 12N29W, to 05N46W, and to 07N58W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection has moved off the W coast of Africa, ahead of the next approaching tropical wave, from 06N to 12N east of 20W to the coast. from 03.5N to 08.5N between 47W and 58W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends along 26N/27N, from the upper Texas Gulf coast to Florida Everglades. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen across the Straits of Florida and Florida Keys. Persistent convection recently across the NE Gulf has shifted NE and inland. Anticyclonic wind flow continues across the basin, with fresh SE to S winds generally W of 93W, where seas are 3-5 ft. Moderate westerly winds continue across the NE Gulf and Big Bend region. Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Gulf through the weekend with the high center fluctuating between the NW and NE basin. This will allow for the continuation of moderate to fresh return flow west of 90W and moderate westerly winds across NE portions of the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast for the NE portions E basin Fri and Sat as the tail end of a frontal system moves across the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving westward toward the central Caribbean from the Mona Passage to western Venezuela. Scattered convection described above is approaching the southern coast of Hispaniola and will move inland later this morning. Strong tradewinds are south of 13N offshore of Colombia where seas are 7-8 ft. Fresh to locally strong ESE winds are moving into the NE Caribbean behind the tropical wave. Fresh to strong tradewinds will continue across the south- central Caribbean through tonight, then increase to just below gale force Thu and Fri nights as the tropical wave moves west of 70W. Strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through the weekend. Another strong tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlc waters Sat and move across the E Caribbean Sat night and Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N35W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward between 23W and 46W. Active convection continues across the NW waters N of 30N associated with the broad low level pressure across the SE U.S. Moderate S to SW winds prevail across the offshore waters there W of 75W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, stable conditions prevail. A large zone of Saharan air dominates the tropical Atlantic from the Cabo Verde Islands to just E of the Lesser Antilles. Fresh ENE tradewinds generally prevail across the Atlantic S of 18N, Where seas are 6-8 ft. The northern portion of a strong tropical wave moving across the Mona Passage and the adjacent waters will be accompanied by fresh to strong winds, building seas as it moves across the SE waters and into the SE Bahamas and adjacent waters to the east today and tonight. Surface ridging will strengthen across the region later today through Sat. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will affect most of the area N of 23N Wed through Sat night. Low pressure across the SE U.S. will move NE and approach the coast of the Carolinas tonight through Thu, dragging a trough across the northern Florida offshore waters. Another strong tropical wave will reach the SE waters Sun. $$ Stripling