279 AXNT20 KNHC 072319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 718 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 01N-19N, moving W at around 10 kt. Saharan air and an associated low level wind surge has moved well ahead of this wave, and can be seen from 10N to 22N across the Atlantic to 55W. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 60W/61W from eastern Venezuela to 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N-18N between 60W-64W. A tropical wave is along 72W/73W from near the Colombia/Venezuela border to central Haiti, moving W at around 10 kt. Associated convection has diminished over the Caribbean Sea with activity now confined inland over western Venezuela. A tropical wave is along 83W from near the Panama/Costa Rica border to near the border of Honduras/Nicaragua to 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Gulf of Honduras from 16N-18N between 85-87W with additional activity to the S of the area over the far eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 07N35W to 04N48W. The ITCZ extends from 04N48W to the coast of Brazil near 03N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the axis of the monsoon trough between 22W and 36W, and within 120 nm N of the axis between 36W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure area is centered over the eastern Gulf near 26N85W with a ridge axis extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Evening satellite and radar imagery indicates fairly clear weather across the basin, with typical isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Florida peninsula and SE United Sates. Earlier scatterometer data showed gentle winds near the high, with moderate to locally fresh return flow elsewhere. Surface high pressure will prevail through the weekend with the center of it fluctuating between the NW and NE basin. This will allow for the continuation of moderate to fresh return flow west of 90W and moderate westerly winds across NE portions of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the NE and portions of the SE basin Fri and Sat as the tail of a frontal system moves across the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough extends from the southern Bahamas to Panama, while a large mid-upper level anticyclone is noted E of this trough across the majority of the basin. Earlier scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh across the central and eastern Caribbean, except fresh to strong near the NW coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades prevail over the western Caribbean, except locally fresh near the Gulf of Honduras. Most of the convection occurring over the basin is described in the tropical waves section above, however additional scattered moderate convection is noted in the SE Caribbean from offshore of Venezuela to across the A-B-C Islands. Surface ridging N of the basin in the W Atlc will strengthen late Wed through Sat. This will allow the continuation of fresh to strong tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean, increasing to near gale force Thu and Fri nights. Increasing winds, seas and active weather is expected over the E Caribbean tonight and Wed as a tropical wave moves across the area. These conditions will spread into the central Caribbean Wed and Thu. Strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 27N-30N between 75W-77W, as well as from 27N-30N between 62W-67W, and N of 30N between 53W-67W. Similar convection is noted from the western Bahamas to the Straits of Florida, and from Puerto Rico northward to 21N between 64W-68W. A ridge axis extends from near 32N42W to near the N coast of Florida. Mainly gentle to moderate flow is noted N of 27N, with moderate to locally fresh trades S of 27N. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted N of 27N and W of 65W, with 4-7 ft seas elsewhere N of 22N. Larger seas of 7-10 ft are noted S of 22N and E of 65W. Surface ridging will strengthen across the region late Wed through Sat. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will affect most of the area N of 23N Wed through Sat night. Low pressure across the SE U.S. will move NE and approach the coast of the Carolinas Wed through Thu, dragging a trough across the northern Florida offshore waters. $$ Lewitsky