000 AXNT20 KNHC 071039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 30W-31W from 01N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan air and an associated low level wind surge has moved well ahead of this wave, and can be seen from 10N to 22N across the Atlantic to 55W. Due to this dry air, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the monsoon trough between 21W and 36W. A tropical wave extends from 20N57W to 05N61W, moving W at around 15 kt. An associated low level cyclonic circulation can be seen in satellite imagery near 14N58.5W moving WNW with the wave, while Saharan air is general north through west of this feature and extends into the Caribbean westward to 66W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring mainly ahead of the wave axis, from 09N to 15N between 58W and 65W. This weather will continue to shift W and NW across the Lesser Antilles and into the E and NE Caribbean during the next 24 hours, producing squalls and thunderstorms. A tropical wave is analyzed along 72W from 06N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of 13N and mainly over land across western Venezuela and Colombia between 70W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N16W to 06N40W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N and 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 38W- 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, extending from the western Atlantic weakly across extreme south Florida to the northwest Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow dominates the basin, with SE to S return flow west of 90W and SW onshore flow across NE portions. Seas are generally 3-5 ft around the periphery of the ridge and 3 ft or less in the SE Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the northern Gulf north of 27.5N from SE Texas to the Florida peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the SW Gulf within 150 nm of the coast moving NW. The ridge will prevail the entire forecast period with the center of high pressure fluctuating between the NW and NE basin. This will allow for the continuation of moderate to fresh southerly winds across W portions of the basin and moderate westerly winds across NE portions into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean. A middle to upper level trough extends from the southern Bahamas to Panama, while a large mid- upper level anticyclone is noted E of this trough across the majority of the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh across the central and eastern Caribbean, except fresh to strong near the N coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trades prevail over the western Caribbean, except locally fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras. A weak ridge along 29N across the W Atlc will persist through tonight before reorganizing and strengthening across the region late Wed through Sat. Fresh to strong tradewinds will persist in the south-central Caribbean, increasing to near gale force Thu and Fri nights. Expect increasing winds, seas and active weather over the Tropical N Atlantic waters today associated with a tropical wave along 58W, spreading across the E Caribbean through Wed. Squalls and thunderstorms are expected across the NE Caribbean later today and tonight as thunderstorms activity moves into the Saharan air. Strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for information on the tropical waves moving across the basin. High pressure extends from a 1027 mb center near 38N30W southwestward to 29N40W then westward to 70W. Overnight scatterometer data depicted fresh tradewinds south of 20N, with seas of 7-9 ft prevailing, and gentle to moderate SE to S winds across the western half of the basin. The weak ridge along 29N will persist through tonight before reorganizing and strengthening across the region late Wed through Sat. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will affect most of the area N of 23N Wed through Sat night. Low pressure across the SE U.S. will move NE and approach the coast of the Carolinas Wed through Thu, dragging a trough across the northern Florida offshore waters. Fresh to locally strong tradewinds and hazy conditions will dominate most of the open Atlantic waters through Thu as another large area of Saharan air accompanies another tropical wave moving across the basin. $$ Stripling