000 AXNT20 KNHC 060543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jul 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Edouard is centered near 37.2N 56.9W at 06/0300 UTC or 595 nm SSW of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving NE at 30 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. An even faster motion to the NE is anticipated during the next couple of days. Little significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 26W from 00N-20N, is moving west at 10 kt. Saharan dust is noted over much of the eastern Atlantic, mainly from 10N to 22N east of 35W. With this, scattered showers are noted below 10N. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 46W from 04N-19N, is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-14N between 45W-55W. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean was repositioned based on latest observations and model guidance. The wave's axis extends along 63W from 05N-22N, and it is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis, mainly south of 10N affecting Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 12N22W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 05N29W to 08N45W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A small 1011 mb low pressure area is centered over the north- central Gulf coast near 30N88W. A surface trough extends from the low to 26N88W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the vicinity of the trough. A thermal trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche with scattered showers. Gentle to moderate breezes and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted across the remainder of the basin. The low center will move NE and inland along the northern Gulf Coast by early Mon with fresh to locally strong SW winds prevailing across the NE waters E of 87W. A narrow high pressure ridge will persist along 25N-26N for the next several days, with moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds prevailing over the waters W of 90W. A low pressure trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and freshen winds over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean. A weakening upper trough extends from over the Windward Passage to central Panama. Subsident northerly flow on the west side of this feature has suppressed the convection across the basin. Surface ridging north of the area is maintaining fresh trades over the southern Caribbean, possibly reaching 25 kt off Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are noted across the basin. Seas range between 3-6 ft, with 8 ft seas possible north of Colombia. A weak high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Locally strong winds are expected tonight and Mon night across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of fresh winds through midweek. Expect increasing winds and seas over the Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon through Tue behind the tropical wave that will cross the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN See the Special Features section for information on T.S. Edouard and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A weak surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from 29N79W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are noted along and west of this trough. A surface ridge extends along 25N west of 55W, supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft persist over open waters. For the forecast, the surface ridge along 25N will gradually lift northward this week. A weak low pressure trough offshore of northern Florida will drift northward and dissipate on Mon. Low pressure may approach the coast of the Carolinas later this week and pull a trough across the northern Florida offshore waters. Increasing winds and seas are possible over the waters north of 27N Wed through Fri. Farther east, a surface ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure near 40N30W. Fresh to strong trades and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted over much of the eastern Atlantic between this ridge and the deep tropics. $$ ERA