000 AXNT20 KNHC 052315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2315 UTC Sun Jul 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Five is centered near 35.8N 60.5W at 05/2100 UTC or 300 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 23 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 23W southward from 20N is moving west at 10 kt. Saharan dust is noted over much of the eastern Atlantic, mainly from 10N to 22N east of 35W, and no significant convection is noted at this time near the wave axis. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 40W southward from 20N is moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-09N between 38W-40W. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 64W southward from 22N is moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis, mainly south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal and Gambia near 13N17W to 06N35W. The ITCZ continues from 06N35W to 07N37W, then continues from 08N40W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-12N between 45W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Divergence aloft on the east side of a mid to upper level low centered near 25N90W is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a small 1012 mb low pressure area is centered over the north central Gulf south of Mobile Bay near 28N88W. Farther west, weak surface high pressure centered near 25N93W dominates the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate breezes and seas of 1 to 3 ft are observed across the basin. For the forecast, the low pressure system near 28N88W will move inland along the northern Gulf Coast early Mon. A high pressure ridge will persist along 25N-26N for the next several days, with moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds prevailing over the waters W of 90W. A low pressure trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and freshen winds over the southwest Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening upper trough extends from over the Windward Passage to central Panama. Subsident northerly flow on the west side of this feature has suppressed the showers and thunderstorms previously active in the southwest Caribbean. Aside of from a few showers over the southeastern Caribbean, little to no convection is evident at this time across the basin. Ridging north of the area is maintaining fresh trades over the southern Caribbean, possibly reaching 25 kt off Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are observed elsewhere across the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft, with 8 ft seas north of Colombia. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean through Thu night. Locally strong winds are expected tonight across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of fresh winds through Tue night. Winds and seas will increase slightly over the Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon through Tue with the passage of a pair of tropical waves. ATLANTIC OCEAN See the Special Features section for information on T.D. Five. A weak surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from 29N west of 70W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm north of the trough, west of 77W. A few showers and thunderstorms are also noted over the central Bahamas. This is in an area of divergence aloft between an upper ridge along 27N and an upper low over the southern Bahamas. A surface ridge extends along 25N west of 55W, supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft persist over open waters. For the forecast, the surface ridge along 25N will gradually lift northward this week. A weak low pressure trough offshore of northern Florida will drift northward tonight and dissipate by Mon. Low pressure may approach the coast of the Carolinas later this week and pull a trough across the northern Florida offshore waters. Increasing winds and seas are possible over the waters north of 27N Wed through Fri. Farther east, a surface ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure near the Azores toward the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong trades and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted over much of the eastern Atlantic between this ridge and the deep tropics. $$ Christensen