000 AXNT20 KNHC 051651 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1251 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Five is centered near 34.5N 63.0W at 1500 UTC, or 160 nm NE of Bermuda, moving NE at 18 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb and maximum sustained wind speed remains 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas estimated to range between 7-8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm Ne of the center. A faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the depression will accelerate away from Bermuda today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 22W southward from 19N is moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-11N between 17W-24W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 39W southward from 20N is moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 55W southward from 20N is moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean with axis along the Lesser Antilles near 63W southward from 22N is moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal near 13N17W to 08N27W. The ITCZ continues from 08N27W to 07N37W, then continues from 08N40W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of the ITCZ between 31W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough continues to linger across the central Gulf. Meanwhile, at the surface, a trough has formed in the central Gulf from 30N88W to 25N90W. This system has a 10 percent chance of forming in the next 48 hours. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the northern and eastern Gulf, N of 24N between 83W-93W. Gentle to moderate ESE winds are noted across the basin with seas ranging from 2-3 ft. A low pressure trough over the north-central Gulf will lift northward and move inland on Mon. A high pressure ridge will persist along 25N-26N through the middle of this week, with moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds prevailing over the waters W of 90W. A low pressure trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and freshen winds over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Nicaragua and showers are also seen in the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, no significant convection is noted at this time across the Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are observed across the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft, with 8 ft seas north of Colombia. A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Thu night. Locally strong winds are expected tonight across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of fresh winds through Tue night. Winds and seas will increase slightly over the Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon through Tue with the passage of a pair of tropical waves. ATLANTIC OCEAN See the Special Features section for information on T.D. Five and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A weak surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from 28N71W to 30N79W. Widely scattered moderate convection is across the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, N of 24N between 71W- 80W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the rest of the domain anchored by a 1033 mb high near 39N32W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the eastern and central Atlantic, with fresh winds in the eastern Atlantic. Strong to near gale force winds are observed along the Canary Islands. Seas in the western Atlantic range 3-4 ft with 6 to 9 ft across the central Atlantic. A high pressure ridge along 24N-25N will gradually lift northward this week. Weak low pressure centered near 29N76W will drift northward through tonight and dissipate by Mon. Low pressure expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast later this week may increase winds and seas offshore of northern Florida Wed through Thu night. $$ AReinhart