000 AXNT20 KNHC 041027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 30.5N71W moving ENE near 20 kt. A cluster of strong thunderstorms extended nearly 150 nm to the S of this low earlier tonight but has since diminished, while new moderate convection has recently flared up within 120 nm SE of the center. Overnight scatterometer data showed W to SW winds of 20-30 kt across the south semicircle of the low, where seas were likely 6-8 ft. It is possible that a tropical depression may form from this system today while the system eastward near 15 mph. The environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant development to occur, by Sunday night. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. The system has a medium chance for development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS... Gale-force winds are present in the METEO-FRANCE areas of CANARIAS. Please refer to the webpage: www.gmdss.org/II.html, and the link for the HIGH SEAS WARNING, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 19N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between 20W and 28W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 15N southward moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave from 03N to 12N between 37W and 43W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, from 17N southward, moving west at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with this wave is near the ITCZ from 05N to 09N betwen 49W and 55W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W, from 19N southward, moving west at 20 knots. The wave has moved into Nicaragua and Costa Rica and under upper level anticyclonic wind flow, which is aiding persistent convection there. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from the Gulf of Honduras southeastward to NW Colombia and the adjacent waters of the SW Caribbean and eastern Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Senegal near 12N16W to 11N32W. The ITCZ continues from 11N32W to 10N36W to 05N53W. Outside of convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 19N to the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle southwestward to NE Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 24N91W and extends and weak and narrow ridge eastward through the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate convection dots the northern waters N of 28N between 85W and 97W. High pressure will persist along 25N through early next week. Moderate to fresh SE flow will develop over the waters W of 90W Sun night through the middle of next week, as high pressure shifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... Saharan air generally dominates the Caribbean east of the tropical wave along 84W, with only widely scattered showers moving across the Lesser Antilles this morning. The ridge N across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the middle of next week. Locally strong winds are expected Sun night in the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of fresh winds through early next week. The winds and the seas will increase in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean on Mon and Tue, with the passage of a tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As mentioned above, a 1011 mb low pressure center is near 30.5N71W moving ENE near 20 kt. W to SW winds 20-30 kt are occurring within 150 nm to the south of this low, accompanied by moderate convection. The low will move ENE out of the area by this evening. A stationary front extends from from W of the low along 30N through NE Florida, and beyond south central Georgia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection has developed south of the boundary from 26.5N to 29.5N between 75W and 79W and is expected to shift eastward this morning. A ridge will persist roughly along 25N-26N through Sun, then gradually move northward through early next week. The 1011 mb low pressure center will move eastward across the waters N of 27N through Sat night, bringing fresh winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will stall and weaken near 31N tonight into Sat. Moderate to fresh tradewinds will dominate the tropics south of the ridge to the Lesser Antilles. $$ Stripling