000 AXNT20 KNHC 032346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2244 UTC Fri Jul 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands, along 20W southward of 18N, moving west at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 18W-25W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed near 42W south of 15N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 45W and 48W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W southward of 18N, moving west at 20 knots. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W south of 19N, moving westward 20 knots. Numerous moderate to strong convection is in the SW Caribbean near this wave and the monsoon trough, from 10N- 15N west of 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 10N25W. The ITCZ continues from 10N25W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 18W-25W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 45W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active off the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, southeast of a sharp upper trough reaching from the central Gulf to the coast of Mexico, south of Tampico. Moderate NW winds are noted over the northeast Gulf, just ahead of a frontal boundary stalled from northeast Florida to central Alabama. 1017 mb surface high pressure is centered near 25N90W. This is maintaining light breezes across remainder of the Gulf, where seas are only 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure will persist along 25N-26N through early next week. Moderate to fresh southeast flow will develop over the waters W of 87W Sun night through the middle of next week as high pressure shifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active off the coast of Nicaragua. These are supported by converging trade winds and a tropical wave moving into the area. A few showers are also noted across parts of the Windward Islands, help a little bit by an upper trough over the eastern Caribbean. Subsident northerly flow aloft dominates the remainder of the basin, with little shower activity noted. Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate the southern Caribbean, where seas are 5 to 7 ft except for 8 ft off Colombia. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft except for 2 to 4 ft in the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean through the middle of next week. Locally strong winds are expected Sun night across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of fresh winds through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a stalled frontal boundary reaching from 31N75W to near Jacksonville Florida. A pre-frontal trough reaches from 29N74W through the northern Bahamas. A cluster of thunderstorms are also active along this trough near 29N73W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active near 25N68W, associated with an upper trough from Bermuda to Haiti. Outside of thunderstorms, light to gentle breezes and seas 2 to 4 ft in open waters west of 65W. For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure ridge will persist roughly along 25N through Sun, then gradually lift northward through early next week. A low pressure trough will move eastward across the waters N of 27N through Sat night, bringing fresh winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will stall and weaken near 31N tonight into Sat. Farther east, a broad ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure area near the Azores to roughly 25N65W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas persist between northwest Africa and the high pressure, mainly north of 20N and east of 35W. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas. $$ Christensen