000 AXNT20 KNHC 030600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Fri Jul 03 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in western Africa, along 14W/15W, from 21N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: within 300 nm to the east of the wave from 11N to 17N. We have been following the westward movement of the tropical wave in the Hovmoller diagram. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 16N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: the wave is moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 19N southward, moving westward 20 knots. This wave has been surrounded by Saharan dust, although not as much as in recent days. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 12N southward between 60W and the tropical wave. The precipitation is near: Trinidad and Tobago, and the coastal plains and coastal waters of Venezuela. The base of the upper level trough, that extends southwestward from the Atlantic Ocean 27N53W upper level cyclonic circulation center, is reaching the area of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 19N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. The Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia beyond Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N southward between the tropical wave and 85W. A tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, southward, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The wave is moving westward 15 knots. An upper level inverted trough is present also, across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 14N to 18N bewteen 92W and 97W, in parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and the coastal waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau, near 12N16W, to 10N22W 10N27W and 07N36W. The ITCZ is along 06N40W, to 05N48W, 07N55W. Precipitation: numerous strong was from 10N to 14N between 15W and 19W, at least 8 hours ago or so. That precipitation eventually moved westward and it weakened and dissipated. Remnant multilayered convective debris clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation remain, from 05N to 14N from 24W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is also within 150 nm to the north of, and within 300 nm to the south of, the monsoon trough and the ITCZ, between 24W and 45W, and elsewhere from 10N southward between 50W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level inverted trough extends from the west central Florida coast, southwestward, into and beyond the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area, mostly in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the coastal plains and coastal waters of the north central Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward. A tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, southward, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The wave is moving westward 15 knots. An upper level inverted trough is present also, across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 14N to 18N bewteen 92W and 97W, in parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and the coastal waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. An east-to-west oriented surface trough is in the Florida Panhandle. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 130 nm to the south of the trough between 84W and 86W. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is in the SE coastal sections of Florida. Precipitation: earlier convective precipitation that was associated with the trough has weakened and dissipated. Warming cloud top temperatures and convective debris clouds, from weakening and possibly still active precipitation, cover the north central Gulf of Mexico, from 27N northward between 87W and 93W. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 29N90W. High pressure along 26N, and benign marine conditions, will prevail across the region through Monday. Fresh SE winds are possible at times in the SW Gulf of Mexico early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 19N southward, moving westward 20 knots. This wave has been surrounded by Saharan dust, although not as much as in recent days. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 12N southward between 60W and the tropical wave. The precipitation is near: Trinidad and Tobago, and the coastal plains and coastal waters of Venezuela. The base of the upper level trough, that extends southwestward from the Atlantic Ocean 27N53W upper level cyclonic circulation center, is reaching the area of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 19N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia beyond Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N southward between the tropical wave and 85W. A ridge extends from a central Atlantic Ocean high pressure center, WSW to central Florida. The ridge will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea into Wednesday. Pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also are possible early next week in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 27N53W cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, to the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the 64W/65W tropical wave. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. The majority of the precipitation is from 24N northward between 50W and 65W. A stationary front is along 32N, at the border of North Carolina and South Carolina. Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 180 nm to the south of the stationary front between 75W and 78W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from the NW Bahamas northward from 74W westward. A high pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean. A ridge extends WSW, from the center, to central Florida. The ridge will persist through early next week. Low pressure will develop late tonight, to the east of Jacksonville Florida, and move eastward across the northern waters through Sunday. Expect rainshowers and thunderstorms with gusty winds, to the areas that are to the north of 27N. Mostly sunny and uncomfortably warm temperatures are expected across South Florida the remainder of this week under the influence of a ridge. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon and early evening hours. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows less African dust, than observed in previous days, over some of the waters between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. $$ mt