629 AXNT20 KNHC 022322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over western Africa, with axis near 13W, as observed on long-term satellite imagery. The Hovmoller diagram clearly shows the westward propagation of the wave. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted ahead of the wave axis covering from 9.5N-14N between 14W-19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen behind the wave axis. It is moving westward near 15 kt. A low amplitude tropical wave with axis along 37W from 03N to 15N is moving westward near 15 kt. This wave is moving through a surrounding stable atmospheric environment. Convection is limited near the wave axis. A tropical wave has reached the eastern Caribbean with its axis along 63W S of 19N. It is moving westward near 20 kt. This wave is surrounded by Saharan dust, although not as much as in recent days. The wave is likely enhancing convection over NE Venezuela and over Trinidad and Tobago. A tropical wave with axis along 73W is moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the northern end of the wave axis affecting Hispaniola. Similar convection is also observed over northern Colombia, likely due to a combination of the tropical wave and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. An inverted V-pattern is seen on visible satellite imagery over the Caribbean Sea related to this wave. The northern extension of a tropical wave crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala and is moving westward at 10-15 kt. The 700 mb GFS model winds indicate a sharp northeast to southeast wind shift in the vicinity of this wave. The wave is situated to the east of an upper-level low that is centered over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The combination of these systems is helping to aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the Yucatan Peninsula, and parts of Belize and northern Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the W coast of Africa across Guinea Bissau near 11N16W to 08N26W. The ITCZ continues from 08N26W to 05N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 12N-30W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 07N-10N W of 53W to the coast of NE Venezuela. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad anticyclonic flow is present over the western part of the Gulf west of 93W, while an upper-level low is spinning over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a 1018 mb high pressure center is located near 27N93W producing generally light and variable winds, except gentle to moderate E-SE winds over the SW Gulf. As previously mentioned, convection has flared up over the Yucatan peninsula and parts of SE Mexico due to a combination of an upper-level low and the northern extension of a tropical wave. A ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the weekend, and is forecast to maintain rather benign marine conditions across the region through Mon. Fresh SE winds are possible at times over the SW Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Daytime heating, local sea breezes and available moisture are helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles late this afternoon. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian/Panamanian low is supporting fresh to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean. These winds are forecast to change little through the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades will prevail for the next several days. Pulses of fresh to locally strong winds are also possible early next week in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves. The 1028 mb Bermuda-Azores High is located near 34N40W with a ridge extending westward to the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. Overall, high pressure will continue across the area through early next week. Low pressure will develop late tonight east of Jacksonville Florida and move east across the northern waters through Sun, bringing some gusty winds as well as showers and thunderstorms to areas north of 27N. Mostly sunny and uncomfortably warm temperatures are expected across South Florida the remainder of this week under the influence of a ridge. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon and early evening hours. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows less African dust, than observed in previous days, over some of the waters between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. $$ GR