000 AXNT20 KNHC 021805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over western Africa, with axis near 11W, as observed on long-term satellite imagery. Latest and current satellite imagery shows increasing deep convection of the scattered moderate to strong type from 10N to 14N between 11W and 15W. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Convection ahead of it is expected to increase along and offshore the coast of Africa prior to its axis moving offshore that coast. A tropical wave with axis along 36W from 04N to 17N is moving westward near 15 kt. This wave is moving through a surrounding stable atmospheric environment. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen within 60 nm of the axis from 04N to 07N. A tropical wave is crossing the Lesser Antilles with its axis along 61W from 06N to 19N. It is moving westward near 20 kt. This wave is surrounded by Saharan air, although not as much as in recent days, but enough to limit convection from developing near it. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen south of 14N between 60W and 62W. A tropical wave with axis along 71W is moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 17N to over the eastern section of the Dominican Republic and between 69W and 71W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms moving quickly westward are north of 15N between 71W and 75W. This activity likely to produce gusty winds. The northern part of the axis of a far western Caribbean tropical wave is just east of Belize and is moving westward at 10-15 kt. The 700 mb GFS model winds indicate a sharp northeast to southeast wind shift in the vicinity of this wave. The wave is situated to the east of a small upper-level low that is centered over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Upper-level divergence east of the low in combination with deep atmospheric moisture in place is helping to aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the northwestern Caribbean and over waters just offshore Belize. Similar activity is inland Belize and over the southeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the W coast of Africa across Guinear near 11N16W and continues to 09N22W and to 08N27W, where a scatterometer pass from this morning indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to just east of the tropical wave along 36W and resumes just to the west of the same tropical wave near 37W. It continues to 04N42W and to near 05N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 18W and 22W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 22W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 17W and 21W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 21W and 28W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 20W and 24W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 25W and 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad anticyclonic flow is present over the western part of the Gulf west of 93W, while an upper-level low is over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a 1017 mb high pressure center is located over the NE Gulf near 27N88W. The associated wind flow around it consists of gentle to moderate return flow west of 93W and generally light and variable winds east of 93W. Little change in the present weather pattern is expected through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 28N between 86W and 89W. This activity is associated with an upper-level shear axis over the north-central Gulf. The activity is weakening with time. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms are lifting northward from the northwestern Caribbean Sea and through the Yucatan Channel to near 24N and between the western tip of Cuba and 88W. This activity is being steered northward by the southerly flow aloft that is occurring east of the aforementioned upper-level low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere east of 90W. The high pressure that is in place is forecast to maintain rather benign marine conditions across the region through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave along 71W and another one that is crossing the Lesser Antilles and into the far eastern Caribbean. Plenty of atmospheric moisture and instability in place is allowing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop over most of the western Caribbean west of 80W and also south of 12N between the coast of Colombia and 80W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over the Windward Passage. The combination of daytime heating, local sea breezes and available moisture should contribute to the formation of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles by late this afternoon. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian/Panamanian low is supporting fresh to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean. These winds are forecast to change little through the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades will prevail for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on a central Atlantic tropical wave and another one that is expected to move into the far eastern Atlantic in the short term. In the upper-levels, an upper trough stretches from an elongated upper-level low near 28N53W southwestward to near 21N56W and to the far northeastern Caribbean Sea. An upper-level anticyclone is noted near 27N68W. At the surface, the 1029 mb Bermuda-Azores high is centered near 34N40W with a ridge extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. The high pressure will continue across the area into early next week. Low pressure will develop Fri morning east of Jacksonville Florida and move east across the northern waters through Sun afternoon, bringing some gusty winds as well as some showers and thunderstorms. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows less African dust, than observed in previous days, over some of the waters between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. $$ Aguirre