000 AXNT20 KNHC 012222 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 322 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An active tropical wave is approaching the W coast of Africa, and it is forecast to enter the Atlantic Ocean on Thu. A tropical is along 32W from 05N to 16N, moving 10-15 kt. A great portion of the wave is embedded in the dry Saharan Air Layer. Only isolated moderate is convection is noted om either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles, with axis along 57W extending S of 19N to the coast of South America. It is moving at 15-20 kt. African dust follows the wave limiting convection near the wave axis. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis along 66W. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Only a few showers are near the wave axis. This wave could enhance some shower and thunderstorm activiyu over Puerto Rico on Thu. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean and extends from the Cayman Islands to near the Panama/Costa Rica border. Moisture associated with this wave will affect Nicaragua and Honduras on Thu helping to induce convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 12N17W to 08N30W to 06N42W. The ITCZ continues from 06N42W to 05N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N-11N between 20W-25W, and from 07N-09N between 35W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure located over the NE Gulf dominates the basin producing gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light and variable winds E of 90W. Little change is expected in this weather pattern through the weekend. Convection is limited across the Gulf waters as Saharan dust is still noted over the western part of the Gulf region based on the Saharan Layer tracking product from CIMSS. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the basin. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian/Panamanian low is supporting fresh to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean. This is forecast to persist through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades will prevail for the next several days. Daytime heating, local sea breezes and available moisture are helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles late this afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the area. The 1028 mb Bermuda-Azores High is located near 34N43W with a ridge extending westward over the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. A weak trough is over NE Florida, and it forecast to linger off the coast of northern Florida through Thu, then moves eastward across the waters N of the Bahamas through at least Sat. A weak cold front will stall east of the Georgia coast this weekend. The remainder of the Atlantic will remain under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High. The center is forecast to retreat eastward toward the end of the week as the aforementioned trough moves eastward over the SW N Attantic. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows African dust dominating most of the Atlantic between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. This region has some reductions in visibility because of the dust. $$ GR