000 AXNT20 KNHC 301753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends in the central Atlantic from 12N southward near 45W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. The tropical wave had to be repositioned westward significantly today. Weak troughing at the surface is evident in this morning's scatterometer passes south of 05N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 03N-08N between 37W- 47W. A tropical wave extends in the central Atlantic with an axis near 22N49W to 09N56W, moving westward around 15 kt. The wave is well- defined at the surface based on scatterometer passes this morning. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 20-23N between 47W-51W. A tropical wave extends in the central Caribbean from 20N southward near 70W, moving westward around 15-20 kt. Weak troughing is evident at the surface with this wave north of 15N from scatterometer and station data. No significant deep convection is evident in association with the wave this morning. A tropical wave extends over Central America from 13N southward near 83W, moving westward around 10 kt. The tropical wave is primarily identified via GFS-based 700 mb wave diagnostics. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N-12N between 80W-83W in part due to the eastward extent of the NE Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from inland in Senegal near 15N17W to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 05N43W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave near 45W, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 08N-13N east of 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging and a 1018 mb high at 27N84W prevails over the N Gulf of Mexico today with light to gentle winds over the E Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to SE winds in the W Gulf. No significant convection is occurring today over the Gulf. Some Saharan Air Layer/African dust continues to be advected into the W Gulf and it is somewhat reducing visibility. High pressure over the eastern Gulf will gradually drift southward through Fri, then persist across the central Gulf this weekend. Moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf will diminish late this week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the basin. A moderate high pressure ridge extends west-northwest to east- southeast over the Bahamas. The resulting pressure gradient is causing generally moderate to fresh E trades this morning, except for strong ENE trades just north of Colombia as observed by scatterometer this morning. The S half of the Caribbean is covered by a moderate Saharan Air Layer/African Dust event, though visibilities are only slightly inhibited. Aside from some convection in the SW Caribbean in connection with a tropical wave and the NE Pacific monsoon trough, only the S Windward Islands are experiencing scattered showers. High pressure persisting north of the region will maintain fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades will prevail for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the area. The 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores High is located near 36N41W with a ridge extending westward over the Bahamas. The trades south of the ridge are generally gentle to moderate with some fresh NE trades from 05N-20N between 30W-45W. W winds north of the ridge off of the SE United States coast are moderate to fresh. Some African dust still remains north of 25N west of 70W. A second Saharan Air Layer/African dust region extends from around 07N-25N between West African and 60W. This region has some reductions in visibility because of the dust. A high pressure ridge will prevail across the central waters through late this week. A low pressure trough will linger off the SE U.S. coast through Thu. A weak cold front may move into the northern waters and stall late Fri through Sat. $$ Landsea