000 AXNT20 KNHC 301002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 602 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N30W to 03N33W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is primarily identified via GFS-based 700 mb wave diagnostics. Scattered showers are noted along the axis mainly south of 07N. A tropical wave extends its axis from 18N48W to 04N55W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to be well-defined at the surface, based on the most recent scatterometer data. Scattered showers are noted near the wave's axis between 44W-55W. This wave is forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles during the next 18-24 hours. A tropical wave extends its axis along 66W from 03N-19W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the southern portion of the wave, affecting Venezuela. A low amplitude tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 83W and south of 14N, moving west at 10 kt. The tropical wave is primarily identified via GFS-based 700 mb wave diagnostics. This system, combined with the eastward extent of the NE Pacific monsoon trough, is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 08N28W. The ITCZ continues from 08N28W to 07N31W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N35W to 03N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough east of 23W, and along the ITCZ mainly between 35W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the basin, with an embedded 1017 mb high centered near 27N85W. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds prevail over the western half of the Gulf, while light and variable winds are near the high pressure center. Some Saharan Air Layer/African dust has moved into the SW Gulf though this is less extensive than the previous outbreak. No convection is presently over the Gulf. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. With this, the same weather pattern will prevail through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for details. Most of the basin is covered by a moderate Saharan Air Layer/ African Dust event, though visibilities are only slightly inhibited. Aside from convection in the SW Caribbean in connection with a tropical wave and the NE Pacific monsoon trough, scattered showers are noted over Cuba and adjacent waters. High pressure prevailing north of the area will support fresh to strong trades across the south central Caribbean into the middle of the week. Winds will briefly diminish by mid-week as the area of high pressure weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the area. The 1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 37N41W with a ridge extending to the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. Some of the Saharan Air Layer/African dust outbreak from earlier days still remains north of 25N west of 70W, though this should disperse tonight. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows African dust dominating the eastern Atlantic, just behind the tropical wave currently east of the Lesser Antilles. High pressure will prevail across the basin through mid-week. The area of high pressure will then weaken as a surface trough moves into the west Atlantic waters. $$ ERA