000 AXNT20 KNHC 300606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 30W/31W S of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. The tropical wave is primarily identified via GFS-based 700 mb wave diagnostics. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-09N between 28W-36W. A tropical wave extends from 18N46W to 10N52W to 03N54W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is well-defined at the surface based on the most recent scatterometer passes. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. Slight development of this system is possible during the next day or so. Strong upper-level winds are forecast to inhibit further development by mid-week. This wave is forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles late Tue night into wed morning. A tropical wave has entered the Caribbean Seas and extends along 65W, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is evident in association with the wave. A low amplitude tropical wave is along 82W S of 14N, moving westward at 10 kt. The tropical wave is primarily identified via GFS-based 700 mb wave diagnostics. This system, combined with the eastward extent of the NE Pacific monsoon trough, is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from inland in Mauritania near 18N16W to 14N20W to 07N27W. The ITCZ continues from 07N27W to 07N30W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N33W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 02N-09N between 36W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with an embedded 1017 mb high located over the NE Gulf near 27N85W. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds prevail over the western half of the Gulf, while light and variable winds are near the high pressure center. Some Saharan Air Layer/African dust has moved into the SW Gulf though this is less extensive than the previous outbreak. No convection is presently over the Gulf. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. This will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for details. Most of the basin is covered by a moderate Saharan Air Layer/ African Dust event, though visibilities are only slightly inhibited. Aside from convection in the SW Caribbean in connection with a tropical wave and the NE Pacific monsoon trough, scattered showers are over E Cuba and Hispaniola. High pressure prevailing north of the area will support fresh to strong trades across the south central Caribbean into the middle of the week. Winds will briefly diminish by mid-week as the area of high pressure weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the area. The 1031 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 36N40W with a ridge extending to the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. Some of the big Saharan Air Layer/African dust outbreak from earlier days still remains north of 25N west of 70W, though this should disperse tonight. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows African dust dominating the eastern Atlantic, just behind the tropical wave currently east of the Lesser Antilles. Over the western Atlantic, high pressure will prevail through mid-week. The area of high pressure will then weaken as a surface trough moves into the NW waters. $$ Formosa