000 AXNT20 KNHC 290003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2314 UTC Sun Jun 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc extending from 01N to 13N with axis near 24W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 04N to 08N between 19W and 25W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 03N to 16N with axis near 39W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N-12N between 40W-48W. A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis near 53W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 48W and 52W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean extending S of 18N with axis near 78W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 13N E of the wave axis to 73W and S of 16N W of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 14N17W to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 09N35W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from near 07N44W to 06N49W. For information about convection see the tropical waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... Stable conditions prevail across most portions of the Gulf this evening, being supported by surface ridging and a middle level high. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Mexico is enhancing the return flow in the western half of the basin to moderate to fresh while light to gentle variable winds dominate the eastern half of the basin. Only isolated showers are noted in enhanced infrared imagery over the SE portion of the Gulf. This activity is being supported by shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft. High pressure will remain centered over the eastern Gulf into late week. This will bring moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin, and the next one approaching the Lesser Antilles. A moderate high pressure ridge extends west-northwest to east- southeast just north of the Bahamas. The resulting pressure gradient is causing generally moderate to fresh E trades, except for strong E trades just north of Colombia. Most of the Caribbean is covered by a moderate Saharan Air Layer/African Dust event, though visibilities are only slightly inhibited. Aside from some convection in the SW Caribbean in connection with a tropical wave and the NE Pacific monsoon trough, scattered showers are observed over Vieques and Culebra as well as the Virgin Islands. With high pressure remaining centered north of the area, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south-central Caribbean into late week. Pulses of fresh to locally strong winds are also possible in the Gulf of Honduras over the next few nights. A tropical wave may approach Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands by mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the area. The 1031 mb Bermuda-Azores High is located near 36N34W with a ridge extending to just north of the Bahamas. NE to E trades south of the ridge are generally gentle to moderate. Some of the big Saharan Air Layer/African dust outbreak from earlier days still remain north of 25N west of 70W, though this is weakening today. A new Saharan Air Layer/African dust region extends from around 07N-25N between West African and the Caribbean. However, this is not nearly as dense as the one from a few days ago. High pressure will dominate the area, bringing gentle to moderate winds into mid-week. By mid-week, a tropical wave may approach Atlantic waters north and east of the Lesser Antilles. $$ Ramos