000 AXNT20 KNHC 281031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa, extending its axis along 18W from 03N-20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis, S of 08N. A tropical wave extends its axis from 02N-18N and along 43W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the wave's axis and S of 10N. A tropical wave extends its axis from 00N-17N and along 56W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and east of the wave's axis and S of 10N. A tropical wave is moving across the SW Caribbean with axis from 04N-21N and along 82W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 17N between 77W-86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 08N22W. The ITCZ extends from 08N22W to 08N40W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N45W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ, with strongest activity noted between 43W-54W. GULF OF MEXICO... Stable conditions prevail across the Gulf supported by surface and middle level ridging. A weak pressure gradient across the region sustain moderate return flow in the western half of the basin and lighter winds elsewhere. Scattered showers are observed over the northern Gulf offshore waters, supported by an upper level trough over the north-central basin and moisture inflow from northern Mexico. The surface ridging will continue prevailing over the Gulf waters through the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected across most of the basin through Wed, except over the northeast Gulf, where light winds will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin, and the next one approaching the Lesser Antilles. The convection present across the basin is mostly related to the extension of the EPAC's monsoon trough, currently extending along 08N. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 10N between 76W-83W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades south of 14N between 73W-78W, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central Caribbean through the middle of next week. The next tropical wave is likely to approach the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week enhancing winds and seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the area. Surface ridging prevails across the western Atlantic, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 27N76W, and a 1029 mb high centered over the eastern Atlantic near 36N32W. Fair weather prevails across the basin. Over the W Atlantic, light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the waters through early next week as high pressure extends across the area from the Central Atlantic. A surface trough passing through the area may bring some moderate to fresh westerly winds north of 28N through mid-week. $$ ERA