737 AXNT20 KNHC 271727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is observed moving off the coast of Africa along 15W from 20N southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the coast of Guinea-Bisau south between 14W-21W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 17N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers is seen near the vicinity of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 17N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. No significant convection is noted with this wave. Water vapor indicate the presence of drier air in the area. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate to strong in clusters in the coastal waters and inland areas of Panama, south of 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes though coast of Guinea near 12N16W, to 07N36W. The ITCZ continues from 07N41W to 06N49W, then west of the tropical wave from 08N55W to the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is seen about 260 nm to the south and 180 to the north of the monsoon trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen between the ABC Islands and Trinidad and Tobago, between 59W-66W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge extends from a southern Mexico anticyclonic circulation center, to Florida. At the surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high in the Southeast Plains extending to the coastal border of Texas and Mexico. ASCAT data indicates east to southeast moderate to fresh winds across the central and western Gulf and lighter winds to the east. Scattered showers are noted along the northwest Gulf. A surface ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters into the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected across most of the basin through Tue night, except over the northeast Gulf, where light winds will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate isolated strong convection in the Caribbean Sea from SE Cuba the coastal waters of Nicaragua between 80W and 83W. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity south of 17N is associated to the tropical wave and Pacific monsoon trough. Scatterometer data shows the moderate to fresh northeast winds continue across the Lesser Antilles and fresh trades over the central Caribbean. Strong easterly winds are noted north of Colombia. Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central Caribbean into the middle of next week. Winds may pulse to near gale force along the coast of Colombia at nights. A tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level inverted trough extends from Honduras, across SE Cuba to the southern Bahamas. At the surface, a 1028 mb high pressure prevails across the Atlantic Ocean centered near 35N35W. Current ASCAT shows moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 09N-30N. In the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the waters into early next week as high pressure extends across the area from the Central Atlantic. A trough passing through the area may bring some moderate to fresh westerly winds north of 27N this weekend. $$ MTorres