000 AXNT20 KNHC 252303 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 29W south of 14N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N within 150 nm of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 43W south of 14N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. No significant convection is noted with the wave at this time. A tropical wave axis along 61W is crossing the Windward Islands, moving westward at 20-25 kt. This wave is evident in precipitable water satellite imagery. Isolated weak convection is noted from 13N to 16N within 90 nm of the wave axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 76W south of 15N, moving west at 15-20 kt. No convection is noted with the wave at this time, as Saharan dust prevails over the central and western Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 07N28W, resumes from 07N30W to 07N35W to 06N41W, then continues from 05N44W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 28W, and between 37W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening over the NW Gulf off the southern Texas coast. Earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong winds were occurring near these storms. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow prevails over the western Gulf, around a surface high pressure ridge that dominates the eastern Gulf. Significant wave heights at buoy 42055 in the SW Gulf have been hovering between 6-7 ft for much of the day. Otherwise, seas are generally 3-6 ft in the western Gulf, and 3 ft or less E of 88W. GOES-16 satellite data highlights a dense plume of Saharan dust over much of the central and northern Gulf, which is inhibiting convection and producing hazy conditions across the region. A surface ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf through tonight due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low centered near Jamaica is providing favorable dynamics to support isolated to scattered convection over and south of the Greater Antilles. Dense Saharan dust persists over the central and western Caribbean. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of a tropical wave that is crossing the Windward Islands this evening. At the surface, strong winds prevail across the south-central Caribbean, with 8-11 ft seas per recent altimeter data and ship observations. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds persist across the rest of the basin, south of a strong high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Sun night with seas building to 12 ft during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Honduras through late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Strong Bermuda-Azores high pressure dominates the Atlantic basin, with a ridge axis extending across the SW N Atlantic offshore waters and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the ridge axis. Earlier scatterometer data shows fresh trades prevail south of the ridge across the tropical Atlantic waters between 30W and 60W, with 7-9 ft seas supported by multiple altimeter passes in this region. The Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the forecast region over the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse across the waters north of Hispaniola each night through Sat night. $$ B Reinhart