000 AXNT20 KNHC 251701 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W south of 15N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 05N-11N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W south of 13N, moving west at 20-25 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 04N-11N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W south of 16N, moving west at 20 to 25 knots. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W south of 14N, moving west at 20 to 25 knots. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia/Senegal near 13N16W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 08N26W. It resumes from 08N28W to 06N39W, and resumes from 06N41W to the coast of Brazil near 01N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N east of 21W to the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level divergence is enhancing convection across the western Gulf. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 29N and west of 91W. GOES-16 satellite data shows Saharan dust continues across the central and northern Gulf, and the stable airmass which the dust is embedded in is helping to limit convection across the eastern Gulf. A surface ridge extends across the eastern Gulf waters anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N84W. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow prevails over the western Gulf. Light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the eastern Gulf. Seas range 2 to 5 ft. A ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf through tonight due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered over Jamaica. This low is helping enhance convection between the Cayman Islands to the west coast of Puerto Rico. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows Saharan dust continues across the Caribbean Sea. The densest areas of dust are west of 70W, where the dust is helping to bring hazy conditions. The dry and stable air mass that accompanies the dust it is helping to suppress precipitation across much of the Caribbean Sea. There is enough moisture to support isolated low topped tradewind showers across the Lesser Antilles. Strong to near gale force winds prevail across the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas range 4 to 6 ft, with seas up to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 10 ft in the south central Pacific where the near gale force winds are occurring. Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central Caribbean through the weekend. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Sun night with seas building to 11 or 12 ft during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge prevails across the Atlantic. A trough continues to linger across the central Atlantic from 32N59W to 24N65W. Isolated thunderstorms are within 50 nm of this trough. Moderate to fresh winds are noted south of 22N. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail around the ridge. The Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the forecast region over the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse across the waters north of Hispaniola each night through Sun night. A plume of Saharan dust is noted across the tropical Atlantic generally from 10N to 24N east of 50W to the coast of Africa. The stable airmass the dust is embedded in is limiting deep convection across this area. $$ AReinhart