000 AXNT20 KNHC 251000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W south of 18N, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 05N-11N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W south of 18N, moving west at 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 04N-09N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 17N, moving west at 20 to 25 knots. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm west and 90 nm east of the wave axis from 08N-11N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 74W south of 15N, moving west at 20 to 25 knots. There is no significant convection associated to this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 09.5N24W. It resumes from 09N27W to 06N36W, and resumes from 05.5N39W to 06.5N53W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N east of 22W to the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, aside from convection associated to the tropical waves scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm north and 60 nm south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level divergence is enhancing convection across the western Gulf. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 28N and west of 91W. GOES-16 satellite data shows Saharan dust continues across the eastern Gulf, and the stable airmass which the dust is embedded is helping to limit convection across this area. A surface ridge extends across the eastern Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow prevails over the western Gulf. Light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the eastern Gulf. A ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters through Sun. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf through tonight due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered near 18N75W. This low is helping enhance convection between Jamaica and the west coast of Haiti. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows Saharan dust continues across the Caribbean Sea. The densest areas of dust are west of 70W, where the dust is helping to bring hazy conditions. The dry and stable air mass that accompanies the dust it is helping to suppress precipitation across much of the Caribbean Sea. The dust is less dense east of 70W. Over these waters, there is enough moisture to support isolated low topped tradewind showers. Strong to near gale force winds prevail across the south central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Honduras, as well as the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central Caribbean through Sun. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Sun night with seas building to 11 or 12 ft during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge prevails across the waters west of 65W. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of Hispaniola, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere south of 22N. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail around the ridge. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure will dominate these waters during the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse across the waters to the north of Hispaniola each night through Sunday night. Farther east, a surface trough is in the north central Atlantic Ocean from 31N57W to 20N60W. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of 20N and east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong tradewinds prevail south of 20N. A plume of Saharan dust is noted across the tropical Atlantic generally from 10N to 20N east of 50W to the coast of Africa. The stable airmass the dust is embedded in is limiting deep convection across this area, though low topped tradewind showers are noted. $$ AL