000 AXNT20 KNHC 250544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 13N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: the wave is moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W from 17N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from 13N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. The tropical wave is moving through upper level cyclonic wind flow. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of Haiti. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in clusters, from western sections of Haiti to the eastern sections of Jamaica. A tropical wave is in the Yucatan Peninsula along 90W, from 19N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. The GFE model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Mexico, and anticyclonic wind flow elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate and widely scattered strong covers the areas from western Guatemala, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and the Mexico coastal waters to 23N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is covering the areas that are from 27N southward between 90W and 95W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W, to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 09N25W and 08N33W. The ITCZ continues to 06N36W 05N44W and 06N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough within 120 nm of the coast of Africa; within 60 nm to the north and within 180 nm to the south, of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 19W and 27W; and within 120 nm to the north and within 60 nm to the south of the ITCZ between the 34W/35W tropical wave and the 53W tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... A tropical wave is in the Yucatan Peninsula along 90W, from 19N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. The GFE model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Mexico, and anticyclonic wind flow elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate and widely scattered strong covers the areas from western Guatemala, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and the Mexico coastal waters to 23N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is covering the areas that are from 27N southward between 90W and 95W. A surface ridge is along 26N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, across central Florida, through the central Gulf of Mexico, toward the Deep South of Texas and NE coastal Mexico. A ridge will prevail in the Gulf waters through Sunday. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are forecast in the western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night, due to the pressure gradient that exists between the ridge and lower pressure in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center that is on top of Haiti, northeastward, to 32N61W in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in clusters, from western sections of Haiti to the eastern sections of Jamaica. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the coastal waters of the Dominican Republic. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from 13N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Little to no deep convective precipitation accompanies this tropical wave in Venezuela and Colombia. GOES-16 satellite imagery has been showing that dense Saharan dust has been covering the western two-thirds of the Caribbean Sea. The dry and stable air mass that accompanies the dust is helping to bring hazy conditions to the area, and it is helping to suppress precipitation in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south central Caribbean Sea through Sunday. The wind speeds will pulse to near gale-force off the coast of Colombia each night through Sunday night. Expect the sea heights to build to 11 feet or 12 feet during the times of the fastest wind speeds. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center that is on top of Haiti, northeastward, to 32N61W. A surface trough is in the north central Atlantic Ocean along 30N57W 24N60W 19N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 600 nm to the west of the surface trough, including in the coastal waters of the Dominican Republic. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure will dominate the forecast region during the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse across the waters to the north of Hispaniola each night through Sunday night. $$ mt