000 AXNT20 KNHC 241717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1245 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Dolly has now weakened to a post-tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center has stopped issuing public advisories on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W south of 14N, moving westward around 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 210 nm of the wave axis from 01N-09N. A stable air mass associated to the Saharan Air Layer is limiting convection north of 10N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W south of 17N moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 200 nm of the wave axis from 08N- 14N. Isolated tradewind showers are noted within 210 nm of the wave axis from 12N-18N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W south of 12N moving westward 10 knots. The significant convection associated with this wave is inland in NE Venezuela and western Guyana. A tropical wave is crossing Central America, with axis near 88W moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Dry and stable air, that is associated with a dense plume of Saharan dust, is limiting significant precipitation with this wave over the Caribbean waters. Active convection is noted over the eastern north Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia near 13N16W to 09N23W to 07N35W. The ITCZ continues from 07N35W to 04N48W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 15W-35W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted within 70 nm of the ITCZ between 39W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends across Texas and Mexico. Upper level divergence ahead of this trough is supporting a line of thunderstorms moving off the Texas and Louisiana coast, N of 27N between 89W-97W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the Bay of Campeche from 20N-26N between 92W-98W. A 1017 mb high pressure is analyzed near 28N84W. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows that Saharan dust is moving into the central Gulf. The stable air mass that has carried this dust all the way from Africa is limiting convection across the SE and central Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly winds in the western Gulf and light winds in the eastern Gulf. Seas range 3 to 6 ft. Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf through Thu night due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are possible over the SW Gulf. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... GOES-16 satellite imagery shows that dense Saharan dust covers central and western Caribbean. The dry and stable air mass that accompanies the dust is helping to bring hazy conditions to the area and is suppressing convection over these areas. The dust is a little less dense over the eastern Caribbean. There is enough moisture to support low topped tradewind showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean, especially across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Strong to near gale force winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of the rest of the Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where light to gentle winds prevail. Seas range from 3 to 7 ft, with upwards of 13 ft north of Colombia where the strongest winds are occurring. Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central Caribbean through the remainder of the week and weekend. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Sun night with seas building to 12 ft and higher during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is off the Florida coast from 30N75W to 28N78W. Isolated moderate to locally strong convection is within 120 nm east of the trough. A surface ridge prevails elsewhere across the SW N Atlantic waters. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. High pressure extends from the central Atlantic to Florida and will prevail across the SW N Atlantic waters through the forecast period. A trough continues to linger across the central Atlantic from 31N55W to 22N59W. No significant convection is noted with it. High pressure extends from the central Atlantic to Florida and will prevail across the offshore waters through the forecast period. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse across the waters north of Hispaniola each night through Sun night. $$ AReinhart