000 AXNT20 KNHC 221800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W south of 18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of the wave axis from 06N-10N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W south of 17N, moving W at 20-25 kt. A stable air mass attributed to the Saharan Air Layer is preventing any convection in the Caribbean, with most of the convective activity occurring in northeast Venezuela. The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W south of 20N moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean near the trough axis from 09N-13N between 79W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms are off the Cayman Islands in the NW Caribbean near 19N82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the Senegal/Guinea-Bissau coast near 12N16W to 09N22W. The ITCZ continues from 09N22W to 08N32W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 08N34W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 200 nm north and 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 26W- 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough extends across the middle Mississippi Valley into the NW Gulf. This is giving way to scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the central Gulf from 27N-30N between 85W-94W. The strongest convection is noted off the SE Louisiana coast. A squall line extends across central Louisiana to southeast Texas approaching the Gulf coast. To the east, a 1020 mb surface high is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N83W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the SE Gulf, and light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the high pressure center. Seas range 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf, and 4-6 ft in the western Gulf. Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf tonight through Thu night as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dense Saharan dust covers the eastern Caribbean east of 75W. No significant precipitation is noted in this area. Strong to ear gale force winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the remainder of the Caribbean. Seas range from 3-6 ft across most of the basin with up to 13 ft north of Colombia with the near-gale force winds. Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will expand to the north-central and southwest basin through the middle of the week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Fri night with seas building to near 12 ft during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture and weak upper-level diffluence is causing isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Bahamas and near southeast Florida. A surface trough extends along a 1022 mb low near 29N51W from 33N49W to 23N59W. Showers are within 150 nm E of the trough. A surface trough extends from 30N38W to 23N38W with isolated showers along it. Fresh trades prevail across the tropical waters S of 20N. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 20N. Seas range 3 to 5 ft across most of the basin N of 20N. High pressure extends from the central Atlantic to Florida and will prevail across the offshore waters through the forecast period. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse across the waters north of Hispaniola each night through Fri night. $$ AReinhart