000 AXNT20 KNHC 220450 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 29/30W south of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of the wave axis from 07N-11N. The axis of a tropical wave is along 58/59W south of 15N, moving W near 25 kt. Isolated showers are over water south of 12N within 180 nm of the wave axis. A stable air mass attributed to the Saharan Air Layer is preventing any convection N of 12N. The axis of a tropical wave is along 78/79W south of 19N moving W near 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 180 nm of the wave axis. Strong winds are within 300 nm E of the wave axis from 11N-18N. The axis of a tropical wave is along 89/90W south of 20N from the Yucatan peninsula to eastern Guatemala to the east Pacific, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms extend as far north as 23N in the south-central Gulf of Mexico between 88W-90W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N22W. The ITCZ continues from 09N22W to 08N28W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 07N32W to 04N48W to 05N53W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen within 240 nm either side of the ITCZ between 35W-52W. Along the coast of Africa, numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen from 10N-13N east of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb surface high over the NE Gulf near 28N84W supports a generally weak pressure gradient across the region, with gentle to moderate winds over the eastern Gulf. Fresh SE winds are seen over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh E winds are over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Diffluence aloft is supporting scattered showers and tstms over the NW basin, mainly north of 26N and west of 89W. Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters this week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf tonight through Thu night as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong upper-level divergence is supporting numerous moderate scattered strong convection over the western Caribbean from 12N-17N between 81W-86W, including much of Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Dense Saharan dust covers the eastern Caribbean east of 72W. No precipitation is noted in this area. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen over Haiti and Cuba. Similar activity is seen along the north coast of Venezuela between 64W-68W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades in the south-central Caribbean with near gale force winds noted near the coast of NW Venezuela and NE Colombia. The ASCAT pass also shows strong trades over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh trades are seen elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as the western Caribbean from 14N-19N. Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will expand to the north-central and southwest basin through the middle of the week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night with seas building to near 12 ft during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture and weak upper-level diffluence is causing isolated showers and tstorms over portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and near the east coast of Florida. Upper-level ridging and subsidence is located in the area east of the Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico. A surface trough near Bermuda and weak upper-level divergence are enhancing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 28N-32N between 62W-68W. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate wind speeds across the subtropical Atlantic from 23N-32N between 40W-81W. Farther east, an upper-level low is centered near 26N46W. A surface trough extends from 35N44W to a 1022 mb low near 31N49W to 23N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 25N-29N between 48W-53W. A surface trough extends from 25N36W to 30N36W with isolated showers along it. A 1029 mb high is near 35N25W and a 1026 mb high is near 34N54W. Fresh trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic from 09N-21N between 35W-60W. High pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic this week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse across the waters north of Hispaniola each night through Fri night. $$ Hagen